Raoul Pal is not watching ceasefire headlines to form his Bitcoin thesis. He is watching the incentive structures of the four parties involved in the Iran conflict, and concluding that the market is pricing a war the game theory says cannot be sustained.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and founder of Maelstrom, is 95% long in a market where Warren Buffett is sitting on the largest cash pile of his career.
Bitcoin reached $79,000 on April 22 for the first time since early February, recovering the full range of its two-month correction. The 1-hour RSI sits at 79.21 on volume that does not match the size of the move. What's underneath the price is more telling than the price itself.
Bitcoin crossed $78,000 on a news-driven spike but April 21 ETF data showed just $11.84M in net inflows, with BlackRock carrying almost the entire positive side alone.
Strategy has surpassed BlackRock's IBIT ETF as the single largest Bitcoin holder after purchasing 34,164 BTC. The milestone arrives with the company's average acquisition cost sitting within only $400 of where Bitcoin trades today.
Michael Saylor's Strategy is no longer a tech company that owns Bitcoin on the side - it is closer to a financial institution that borrows from capital markets to accumulate a single fixed-supply asset.
Bitcoin slipped below $75,000 on April 20 as Iran's rejection of a second round of nuclear negotiations with the United States injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, pushing risk assets lower across the board.
Adam Back dismisses quantum panic, defends institutional Bitcoin adoption, and bets $500K–$1M Bitcoin arrives within 24 months.
Bitcoin was trading above $77,200 this Saturday morning when the IRGC dropped the news: the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. The brief 24-hour window where Iran had declared it "completely open" is over, and the price action on the 15-minute chart tells the whole story.
Bitcoin reclaimed $77,000 after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran reportedly taking place on Snunday in Islamabad, signaling deepening diplomatic progress.
Tether's $127.5 million intervention in Solana's DeFi ecosystem, a Bitcoin rally fueled by institutional ETF money, and one of the stranger stock pivots in recent memory defined Thursday's crypto session, according to social data analysis from Santiment.
Bitcoin recovers from $65K to $75K, reclaiming all three MAs, but Binance sell ratio at 0.97 and TMM at $78.3K signal caution.
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