Bitcoin Bottom or Relief Rally? The First Test Lies Ahead
Bitcoin may have found its correction floor around $57,800 after June and July produced almost identical lows.
Price has since recovered toward $65,000 and reclaimed several long-term reference levels. The rebound now faces a cost-basis barrier near $67,000, while heavy long positioning keeps the risk of another liquidation-driven selloff alive.
Key Takeaways
- A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would strengthen the bottom case.
- The $61.5K cost basis is a market reference, not guaranteed buy-side support.
- Coldcard-driven wallet activity should not be mistaken for fresh Bitcoin demand.
- A break below the June-July lows could turn leverage into additional selling pressure.
The $57.8K Floor
Bitcoin reached roughly $57,900 in June and returned to almost the same level in July, when price fell to about $57,750. The two monthly lows were separated by only around $150.
August has so far produced a different structure. The current monthly low sits near $62,200, more than $4,000 above the June-July floor.
The higher low remains provisional until August closes, but so far there has been less downside follow-through than in June and July.
Reclaiming the $61K Zone
Bitcoin’s 50-month SMA currently sits near $60,800. Price traded below it during the correction and has since moved back above the average, with the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel running through the same broad region.
A CryptoQuant analysis places the realized price of Binance user deposit addresses around $61,500. Bitcoin also fell below that level before recovering it.
The $61,500 figure represents a cost basis rather than visible buy-side liquidity. CryptoQuant notes, however, that recent moves below the area have been followed by relief buying.
With the cost basis and 50-month SMA sitting relatively close together, the $60,800-$61,500 region becomes an important area to watch during any pullback.
A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would strengthen the case that the June-July lows marked the bottom of the correction.
Momentum is still lagging behind price. Monthly RSI remains around 44, below its neutral 50 level.
CryptoQuant’s $67K Cost Basis Is the Next Test
The same CryptoQuant analysis places the realized price of newer whales near $67,000.
Unlike the 50-month SMA, the $67,000 level comes from on-chain cost-basis data rather than the monthly price chart. It represents the average acquisition price of CryptoQuant’s newer-whale cohort, which the analysis says could generate selling pressure as those holders approach breakeven.
A sustained move above $67,000 would clear that cost-basis barrier and add weight to the recovery from the June-July lows.
A rejection there would leave the rebound incomplete and put the recently recovered support below current price back into focus.
Santiment’s Wallet Spike Needs Context
Santiment reported 2.27 million newly created Bitcoin wallets over the latest week, its highest network-growth reading in a year. Around 751,000 wallets were active, the strongest level in 10 months.
Santiment links much of the increase to the Coldcard security incident, which prompted users to move Bitcoin and create fresh wallets. The episode also reopened the custody questions examined in our analysis of the Coldcard flaw and the Bitcoin wallet-versus-ETF debate.
Moving existing coins into newly generated wallets can increase network growth and activity without introducing new capital.
The spike does not show that investors accumulated around the June-July lows. Activity after the Coldcard-related transfers fade will offer a cleaner indication of whether network usage remained elevated.
Leverage and Liquidation Risk
The $57,800 area held in both June and July, but leveraged positioning still leaves a path for another move lower.
Joao Wedson warned that $57,000 and below remains an area of concern, pointing to a current dominance of unliquidated long positions over shorts.
$57,000 and below still concerns me.
Before Bitcoin formed its 2022 bottom, the market went through one final major liquidation event.
Now we are once again seeing a clear dominance of unliquidated longs over shorts.
These levels change constantly, so I strongly recommend… pic.twitter.com/ilUSJa1ZZc
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) August 8, 2026
His concern is that another sharp decline could force leveraged longs out of the market, adding mechanical selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches the same area that stopped the correction in June and July.
Wedson compares the setup with Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom, which was preceded by a major liquidation event. That historical comparison does not mean another final flush is required, but the current leverage still leaves forced selling as a downside risk.
A decisive break below $57,750-$57,900 could therefore combine a technical breakdown with forced selling from leveraged longs.
Below that floor, CryptoQuant places miner-related cost bases near $51,000 and long-term holder whale cost bases in the upper-$40,000 range.
Neither is an immediate target. They become relevant only if Bitcoin first loses the reclaimed $60,800-$61,500 area and then breaks the June-July lows.
- Methodology: The analysis combines the BTC/USD monthly chart, 50-month SMA, monthly RSI and long-term trend structure with realized-cost-basis data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin network-growth and active-address data from Santiment, and liquidation-market observations cited from Joao Wedson. On-chain activity and liquidation positioning are used as supporting context rather than standalone confirmation of price direction.
- Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and technical, on-chain or derivatives signals can fail.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
