Bitcoin May Be Pricing In a CLARITY Act Failure, Galaxy CEO Says
Bitcoin may already be pricing in another failure by Washington to deliver comprehensive crypto legislation, according to Galaxy founder and CEO Michael Novogratz.
Key Takeaways
- Michael Novogratz expects Bitcoin to reach $70,000 before falling below $60,000.
- He believes Bitcoin’s mid-$60,000 price reflects doubts that the CLARITY Act will pass.
- An unexpected legislative breakthrough could lift Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and the broader crypto market.
- Novogratz and Anthony Scaramucci also warned against treating crypto as a series of short-term bets.
During a conversation with SkyBridge founder and managing partner Anthony Scaramucci, Michael Novogratz said he expects Bitcoin to trade above $70,000 before it falls below $60,000.
“Bullish. Crypto is trading better,” he said when Scaramucci asked which level Bitcoin would reach first.
The prediction was measured rather than aggressively optimistic. Novogratz acknowledged that he could not clearly identify the source of the stronger price action and did not describe the market as being driven by an explosive wave of institutional buying.
“It’s not trading with explosive energy. It’s just trading a little bit better.”
Bitcoin Is Holding Up Without an Obvious New Buyer
Bitcoin has maintained a firm bid even though some of the market’s most visible buyers have not been actively adding to their positions. Scaramucci also pointed to the asset’s resilience during an unfavorable news cycle.
Together, those observations suggest that the improvement may be coming from less aggressive selling rather than a sudden increase in demand. A market can strengthen because buyers become more active, but it can also rise when existing holders become less willing to sell at lower prices.
The interview did not include exchange-flow, ETF or order-book data that could confirm seller exhaustion. Bitcoin’s price action is nevertheless more consistent with an easing of sell-side pressure than with a major breakout powered by obvious new capital.
That type of market may require less fresh demand to move higher, particularly if an unexpected catalyst forces investors to adjust their positioning. Novogratz sees U.S. crypto legislation as the clearest candidate.
The CLARITY Act Creates an Uneven Market Bet
Novogratz believes Bitcoin’s position in the mid-$60,000 range reflects skepticism that Congress will complete work on crypto market-structure legislation.
“In the mid-60s, Bitcoin is a sign that the market doesn’t think it’s going to pass,” he said.
The legislation under discussion is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, commonly known as the CLARITY Act. Its broader purpose is to establish a federal framework for digital assets and draw clearer jurisdictional lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The House approved an earlier version in July 2025. Following months of negotiations, the Senate Banking Committee advanced its negotiated text by a 15–9 vote on May 14, 2026, sending the measure toward consideration by the full Senate.
Committee approval does not guarantee enactment. The bill still needs sufficient support on the Senate floor, and any differences from the House version would have to be resolved before it could be sent to the president.
Novogratz said the remaining political window is narrowing. Failure to reach an agreement soon could delay the legislation for a considerably longer period, removing a catalyst that parts of the industry have expected for more than a year. A legislative failure could push Bitcoin back toward $60,000. Because the market already appears to assign a high probability to delay or defeat, however, part of that disappointment may be reflected in the current price.
Passage would represent the larger surprise and could trigger a broader repricing across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other major crypto assets. Bitcoin would benefit from greater certainty around exchanges, brokers and institutional market access, while ETH and XRP may be more sensitive to rules defining the boundary between securities and digital commodities.
The bill would not automatically classify every token favorably or eliminate regulatory risk. Its potential market impact comes from replacing part of the existing uncertainty with a statutory process for disclosures, registration and regulatory oversight.
Passage also remains politically difficult. Senate Banking Committee minority staff have argued that the legislation leaves gaps that could be exploited for illicit finance. Senator Elizabeth Warren has also criticized the absence of provisions addressing political conflicts of interest connected to crypto businesses.
Those objections help explain why progress through one committee has not yet translated into a completed law.
Crypto Access Is Expanding Faster Than Investor Discipline
The conversation then moved from Bitcoin’s immediate setup to a broader problem developing across retail markets. Novogratz distinguished between giving ordinary investors access to financial assets and encouraging them to behave like professional traders. Easier access has lowered barriers, but it has also blurred the line between investing and gambling.
“We have an almost irrational bull market in young kids, sports betting, trading stocks, trading crypto,” he said.
His criticism was directed at speculative behavior rather than crypto as an asset class. Professional trading firms operate with faster technology, deeper liquidity data, specialist teams and risk systems built across multiple market cycles. Retail participants pursuing rapid, oversized returns are competing against those firms while often absorbing the costs of poor timing, spreads and excessive trading.
A few successful trades can reinforce the belief that the advantage is repeatable. Over longer periods, frequent trading exposes inexperienced participants to leverage, emotional decisions and low-probability bets that increasingly resemble gambling.
Scaramucci agreed that investors are generally better served by taking a longer-term approach instead of constantly searching for trades capable of producing enormous returns within days. His own company’s history illustrates that distinction. Scaramucci said SkyBridge changed direction roughly five years ago and became a more crypto-focused business.
“About five years ago, we flipped into a more crypto-centric business.”
That was a strategic shift in capital, research and company resources rather than a sequence of short-term directional bets. SkyBridge was adapting its business model around a long-term view of digital assets while continuing to develop its conference and investment operations.
The interview ultimately draws a line between adoption and speculation. Companies such as Galaxy and SkyBridge are building businesses around asset management, market infrastructure and long-term crypto adoption, while many retail participants approach the same market through leverage and rapid bets.
Washington may influence Bitcoin’s next move by delivering or delaying a clearer regulatory framework. Legislation cannot, however, prevent investors from overtrading or mistaking easier access for a durable advantage.
The longer-term outcome would might depend on whether market participants use crypto as financial infrastructure and an investable asset class, or primarily as another casino operating around the clock.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 5,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
