Bitcoin and Crypto Surge as Trump Claims U.S.-Iran Deal Is Done
Bitcoin pushed above $63,600 on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced in the Oval Office that the United States had reached a settlement with Iran, pending what he described as the "finalization of documents."
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin climbed above $63,600 after Trump claimed a U.S.-Iran peace deal was imminent.
- Total crypto market cap stands at $2.18T, up 2.68%.
- Over $361 million in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with short sellers taking the larger hit at $198.3M.
- Markets are pricing in optimism cautiously – weekly RSI on Bitcoin remains well below recovery thresholds
Trump said he expected a formal signing “over the next few days” and added that the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most strategically sensitive shipping corridors, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes – would reopen once the agreement is signed.
While the immediate price spike reflects algorithmic and retail momentum following the president’s statement, long-term market sustainability hinges on deeper economic indicators. To understand the real impact, we must look at the underlying inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy trajectory.
For crypto markets, the geopolitical signal landed as a short-term tailwind. The total crypto market capitalization rose 2.68% to $2.18 trillion, with Bitcoin gaining around 2.80% over 24 hours. Ethereum climbed 3.28%, Solana added 5.34%, and XRP was up nearly 4%, reflecting a broad-based risk-on reaction rather than movement specific to any individual asset’s fundamentals.
The reason geopolitics moves crypto – an asset class with no direct exposure to oil shipping lanes – comes down to risk appetite. When a major source of global uncertainty appears to ease, institutional and retail money alike tends to rotate back into higher-risk assets. Iran-related tensions have kept a lid on energy prices and global trade sentiment for months, and even the suggestion of resolution is enough to trigger position unwinding among traders who had been sitting on defensive bets.
Shorts Get Squeezed, But the Pain Is Limited
The price move triggered a wave of liquidations across derivatives markets. In 24 hours, $361.18 million in positions were wiped out, according to CoinGlasss data – $162.87 million in longs and $198.31 million in shorts. Bitcoin alone accounted for $97.36 million in liquidations, with short positions representing $70.51 million of that figure. This pattern is consistent with a short squeeze dynamic: traders who had positioned for further downside were forced to close those bets as prices moved against them, which in turn amplified the upward price pressure.
That said, the scale of these liquidations is not extraordinary in the context of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. It reflects a crowded short positioning environment rather than a fundamental shift in market structure.
The Weekly Chart Has Not Confirmed Anything Yet
Looking at Bitcoin’s weekly chart on Binance, the price is trading near $63,580 – well below all three key moving averages. The 50-week SMA sits at $91,723, the 100-week at $88,434, and the 200-week at $62,034. The fact that Bitcoin is hovering just above its 200-week moving average is the most significant technical data point here: historically, this level has acted as a long-term floor during bear phases. A sustained close below it would change the macro technical picture considerably.
The weekly RSI at 34.54 is approaching oversold territory without quite breaching it. The signal line sits at 40.36. Neither reading suggests momentum has turned – they indicate a market that has been under sustained selling pressure for months and has not yet found the kind of exhaustion that typically precedes a durable reversal.
Scepticism Is the Dominant Market Mood
Despite the price reaction, investors are treating Trump’s Iran announcement with considerable caution. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 17 – deep in “extreme fear” – which means sentiment has not meaningfully recovered despite the day’s gains. This is not the first time Trump has made sweeping diplomatic claims that later failed to materialize on the announced timeline, and markets appear to be pricing in that track record. A deal announcement and a deal are not the same thing, and the crypto market’s subdued sentiment reading reflects exactly that distinction.
There is also a macro constraint that the geopolitical narrative does not erase. Inflation in the United States remains elevated enough that rate cut expectations have been pushed back repeatedly throughout 2025. If anything, an easing of oil supply constraints through a Strait of Hormuz reopening could be disinflationary – in theory, a positive for rate-sensitive assets like crypto. But the timing and magnitude of any such effect remain speculative, and the Federal Reserve has shown no willingness to move ahead of confirmed data. A rate hike remains a non-trivial risk in the near term, which creates a structural ceiling for risk assets regardless of short-term geopolitical tailwinds.
Top Gainers in 24 Hours
| # | Asset | Price | 1h % | 24h % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stargate Finance STG | $0.5642 | +4.36% | +49.42% |
| 2 | Audiera BEAT | $9.63 | +1.41% | +46.86% |
| 3 | DeXe DEXE | $21.28 | +2.87% | +19.22% |
| 4 | Curve DAO Token CRV | $0.2486 | +0.71% | +17.64% |
| 5 | Monero XMR | $369.05 | +2.08% | +13.06% |
The gainers list is dominated by mid- and small-cap tokens with specific narrative catalysts rather than Bitcoin proxies, which suggests that today’s risk-on move has not been uniform enough to lift the entire market – a pattern more consistent with speculative rotation than a broad recovery.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Digital assets are highly volatile and carry a significant risk of capital loss. Past performance and historical on-chain patterns are not indicative of future market results. Always conduct your own independent research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
