US Jobless Claims Fall to 206K, Beating Estimates
New filings for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week, pointing to continued resilience in the U.S. labor market even as trade and inventory data paint a more complicated picture for the broader economy.
- Jobless claims fell to 206,000, beating the 225,000 estimate.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.869 million, slightly above expectations.
- Unemployment rate held steady at 1.2 percent.
- December goods trade deficit widened to $98.5 billion.
- Imports rose 3.6 percent, while imports from China fell 2 percent.
For the week ending February 14, initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, well below market expectations of 225,000. That marked a decline of 23,000 from the prior week’s revised level of 229,000. The four-week moving average edged down to 219,000, suggesting that layoffs remain contained and that the recent volatility in weekly figures has not turned into a sustained uptrend.
On an unadjusted basis, actual initial claims totaled 207,694, down 42,509 from the previous week – a 17 percent drop. Seasonal factors had anticipated a smaller decline of about 7.9 percent, indicating that the labor market performed better than statistical models projected.
Continuing Claims Edge Higher
While new claims declined, continuing claims – which reflect the number of people already receiving benefits – rose slightly. For the week ending February 7, continuing claims increased by 17,000 to 1.869 million, slightly above expectations of 1.860 million.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an unadjusted basis, the rate remained at 1.4 percent, unchanged from the previous week and from the same period a year earlier. The total number of people receiving benefits under state programs reached 2.207 million, up modestly week over week.
The data suggest that while layoffs are not accelerating, some displaced workers may be taking slightly longer to find new jobs.
Trade Deficit and Import Data Add Pressure
At the same time, fresh trade data showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $98.5 billion in December, significantly larger than the expected $86 billion shortfall.
December imports climbed 3.6 percent month over month, contributing to the wider deficit. However, goods imports from China fell 2 percent on a monthly basis, reflecting shifting trade flows and ongoing geopolitical and supply-chain adjustments.
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Retail inventories were unchanged month over month, missing expectations for a 0.1 percent increase. Flat inventory growth may signal cautious ordering from retailers amid uncertainty about consumer demand.
On a broader scale, the U.S. trade deficit for 2025 totaled $901.5 billion, slightly narrower than the $903.5 billion recorded in 2024. Still, goods exports to Canada fell to their lowest level since January 2022, underscoring ongoing weakness in certain key trading relationships.
Labor Market Still Holding Up
Taken together, the drop in initial jobless claims to 206,000 reinforces the narrative of a labor market that remains fundamentally stable. Employers appear reluctant to let workers go, even as trade imbalances widen and external demand softens.
However, the rise in continuing claims and the widening monthly trade deficit suggest that underlying pressures are building. If import growth continues to outpace exports and global demand remains uneven, the resilience seen in the labor market could face new tests in the months ahead.
For now, though, the latest claims data signal that layoffs remain subdued and that the U.S. job market continues to provide a key pillar of support for the broader economy.
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Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
