Solana Price Hangs by a Thread as Fed Hike Odds Near 100%
Solana (SOL) slid to around $82 on Tuesday, November 10, dropping out of the bottom of a descending channel that had framed its price since October 29.
Key Takeaways
- Solana broke below the descending channel that has guided its price since late October.
- Long traders absorbed almost all of the liquidations triggered by the drop.
- Rising odds of a Fed rate hike pushed Bitcoin and most altcoins lower.
- Formation Securities notified the SEC of plans for a tokenized stock venue on Solana.
A broad crypto sell-off drove the move. Bitcoin fell below $73,000 after the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 9 meeting climbed to almost 100% on CME’s FedWatch tool. SOL ended the day down 5% and the week down close to 12%, with a market value of $48.6 billion.
Monday’s Support Test Ends in a Breakdown
The four-hour breakdown extends a decline that started on the daily chart. On November 8, SOL posted its first daily close below the 200-day simple moving average since August. The rebound that followed stalled at $88.46, just under the average near $89. As we noted in our November 9 analysis, that rejection put the $84.70 area in focus, where the daily chart’s 0.618 Fibonacci retracement was converging with the lower edge of the channel.
That zone lasted less than a day. Sellers pushed SOL through $84 and out of the channel on a sharp jump in four-hour volume, and the session low of $81.52 came within a few cents of the next support. On Monday the open question was whether former support would hold. Today the chart points to a possible continuation of the downtrend, and traders care less about reclaiming $89 than about whether buyers can defend $81.34.
One More Leg Down Opens the Door to $76
The $81.34 level is the base of the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the $103.85 high where the channel began, which makes it the last reference point inside the range SOL has traded in for two weeks. A four-hour close beneath it would expose the first downside extension at $78.68, and further selling would bring $76.03 into view.
Above the price, $84 has changed roles. It was the floor that kept the channel intact, and now any rebound has to get past it first. A move back above $84 would return SOL to the channel with $86.65 as the next ceiling, although the broader downtrend would still be in place. The 50-period exponential moving average at $89.91 and the 200-period EMA at $98.51 both sit well overhead, and the first of them lines up almost exactly with the 0.382 retracement at $89.94.
The four-hour relative strength index has dropped to about 26.8. That reading means sellers have controlled almost every four-hour session for the past two and a half days. Selling at that pace often burns itself out and leads to a short relief bounce, but readings like this rarely mark the actual low, and the indicator’s own average at 34.2 is still falling.
| Level | Type | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| ▲ $84.00 | Resistance | Former channel floor, first hurdle for a rebound |
| ● $81.34 | Key support | Last Fibonacci floor, tested at $81.52 |
| ▼ $78.68 | Next target | First stop on a close below $81.34 |
Leveraged Longs Took 97% of the Damage
According to CoinGlass data, exchanges liquidated $36.52 million in SOL positions over 24 hours, and $35.54 million of that, or 97.3%, came from long traders who had borrowed to bet on higher prices. When a long position runs out of margin, the exchange closes it by selling the collateral into the market, adding supply just as buyers thin out. That forced selling helps explain how SOL cut through $84 in a single four-hour candle.
Open interest, the total value of outstanding futures contracts, points the same way. It stood at $5.14 billion on November 10, down about 15% since mid-September and roughly a third below the $7.8 billion peak on September 27. When price and open interest fall together, traders are usually closing positions, by choice or by force, so the decline looks driven more by longs leaving than by new short bets. The washout is not complete, though. Open interest still sits in the 67th percentile of the past year, so a meaningful amount of leverage remains and could feed another cascade if $81.34 gives way.
The macro trigger matters because leverage reacts to interest rates. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, and FedWatch already priced a quarter-point hike in December above 80% after that meeting. This week’s jump toward near-certainty raises the expected cost of borrowing dollars, which tends to support the currency and draw capital away from assets that pay no yield, crypto included.
Formation Picks Solana for Tokenized Stocks
The sell-off overshadowed one positive development for the network. On November 9, Formation Securities notified the SEC that it plans to run a tokenized securities venue on Solana, where verified investors could trade blockchain versions of U.S.-listed shares around the clock while keeping their voting and dividend rights. The venue would use Orca’s automated market maker, a system that prices trades from pools of deposited assets, and settle each trade and its payment in one onchain transaction. Formation expects Exodus Movement, Forward Industries and Galaxy Digital to be the first listings when it launches in early 2027.
Formation filed the notice under the SEC’s Innovation Exemption from September 17, and the regulator says that appearing on its list of prospective venues does not establish compliance. The exemption also caps trading at 0.25% or 2.5% of a stock’s average daily volume, depending on the tier. Any direct boost to SOL demand would therefore build slowly through transaction fees, which explains why the news barely moved the price.
BREAKING: Formation Securities (@formation_so) notifies the SEC of its intent to operate the first tokenized securities venue on Solana.
U.S.-listed shares with the same voting and dividend rights as the originals, settling atomically onchain, 24/7. pic.twitter.com/SO4Jbnz4ci
— Solana (@solana) November 9, 2026
What Traders Will Watch Before December 9
The near-term picture comes down to a few levels. A four-hour close below $81.34 would confirm the channel breakdown and point toward $78.68, while a recovery above $84 would reopen the path to $86.65. Open interest is the second signal to track. If it rises during a bounce, new leveraged longs are coming back and rebuilding the fuel for another liquidation wave, while a rebound on flat or falling open interest would suggest spot buying on steadier footing.
Beyond the chart, the Fed’s December 9 decision is now the main event on the macro calendar, and the dot plot released with it will show how many further hikes policymakers expect in 2027. Over the next four weeks, how markets price that path may matter more for SOL than any single technical level, because it sets how much borrowed money traders are willing to keep in crypto positions.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
