Ethereum Price Erases August Breakout, Tests $2,000
Ethereum dropped 4.6% on Tuesday to $2,037, with a low of $2,006 after the CPI report, and has now unwound the late-August breakout back to its origin.
Key Takeaways
Tuesday’s selling across crypto followed the October CPI report, the release that also preceded Bitcoin’s dip under $74,000. The readings below come from the Binance daily chart at 16:16 UTC.
The gap from August is filled
The late-August rally printed almost no sessions between $2,000 and $2,500. ETH crossed that distance in two candles with little two-way trading in between, so when the 0.382 retracement near $2,307 gave way last Thursday there was no shelf underneath it. Price fell through the whole August range in four sessions.
The August gap, both directions
Reached in late August, just under the 0.236 near $2,497
0.382, lost on November 5
November 10 low
Retracement levels run from the June low near $1,505 to the late-September high near $2,803, the same range as Coindoo’s earlier Ethereum analyses.
What gave way, and when
The trend broke before this week. Through October, ETH printed lower highs and lower lows and dropped below the white dashed line that had tracked the summer advance. What went this week were the last two supports beneath it.
Monday’s close was the second in a row under the 200-day SMA at $2,154, which sits on top of the 0.5 retracement at the same price. Today it was the turn of the blue line rising through the June and August lows, the multi-year trendline that held Sunday’s wick to $2,060. ETH opened at $2,135, got no higher than $2,137 and cut through the line near $2,090 without a pause.
Why the fall stopped at $2,006
The 0.618 retracement near $2,001 is the top of the range ETH built through August before the breakout, and today’s low came within about $5 of it. The round number at $2,000 adds its own weight.
Momentum reached that floor already stretched. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 28.84, below the 30 mark that signals oversold conditions, under its signal line at 35.97 and beneath 50 since early October.
June: RSI under 30
Price near the $1,505 cycle low, all three daily averages overhead.
November 10: RSI at 28.84
Price at $2,006, about 33% above the June low, all three averages overhead again.
Volume by 16:16 UTC stood at 241.73K ETH with nearly eight hours left in the session, in line with recent days rather than the spikes that accompanied the August breakout. Whether that is enough to end the decline is the open question. What the chart shows is the lowest RSI reading in five months, arriving with price on a level that mattered before.
Three averages now sit overhead
The 50-day SMA at $2,458 has rolled over and sits just under $2,497, a consolidation floor through late August and September that turned into resistance in mid-October. The 100-day at $2,375 is still rising, so the falling 50-day keeps closing in on it. Between those two and the current price sit the 0.382 near $2,307 and the long upper wick that ended the early-November rebound. The nearest ceiling is the 200-day.
What each side needs
Both cases start from the same two numbers: $2,006 underneath and the 200-day above.
The case for lower hinges on the bounce
While daily closes stay below the 200-day, the trend is down and rallies are retests of lost levels. The clearest test of that view is not at $2,006, where an RSI of 28.84 leaves sellers stretched, but on the next move up. A rebound to the broken trendline near $2,090, or to the 200-day itself, that ends in a daily rejection wick would confirm former support as resistance.
A daily close under the 0.618 near $2,001 would mean the August base has failed. The next shelf below is the 0.786 near $1,783, the floor of the July and August range, about 12.5% under today’s price.
The case for a floor starts at $2,006
The counter-trend case rests on major support meeting an oversold daily RSI. A close that holds above today’s $2,006 low would be the first step. The relief target is the 200-day at $2,154, about 5.7% higher, where the 0.5 level sits with it.
A bounce alone does not change the trend. For the breakdown to count as a failed move, ETH would need consecutive daily closes back above the 200-day. Only then would the 0.382 near $2,307 come back into play, about 13% above the current price.
The timing was CPI; the depth is Ethereum’s
The hour of the drop came from the inflation report. The size did not. At 13:45 UTC, when Coindoo’s bitcoin report went out, BTC was down 1.94% and still above its 200-day average at $73,191. At 16:16 UTC, ETH was down 4.61% and had lost its own 200-day two sessions earlier. The gap between the two is Ethereum’s weaker structure, not the macro print.
Bitcoin still sets the outer limit. If it loses $73,191, ETH could be carried through $2,001 whatever its RSI reads, and a market-wide bounce could lift ETH back to the 200-day without ETH reclaiming it on a close. The next reading is tonight’s daily close: above $2,001 keeps the August base intact for another session, below it does not.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. The levels and scenarios described are based on technical analysis of public chart data and do not guarantee future price movements. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, so do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
