Bitcoin’s Chart Is Bullish, But On-Chain Data Urges Caution
Bitcoin recovers from $65K to $75K, reclaiming all three MAs, but Binance sell ratio at 0.97 and TMM at $78.3K signal caution.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin recovered strongly from $65K to $74K on the 4H chart.
- Price above all three MAs – 50MA at $72,767, 100MA at $70,374, 200MA at $70,199.
- Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance at 0.97 – below critical threshold, whales still selling.
- True Market Mean Price at $78.3K – BTC trading roughly 5% below it.
- Sell-side liquidity declining – accumulation demand rising, supply squeeze building.
- Sentiment improving, but recovery is not yet confirmed.
The Chart Tells One Story
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has staged an impressive recovery over the past two weeks, climbing from the $65,000 area all the way up to $75,000 before going back to $74,700 at the time of writing, reclaiming all three major moving averages in the process. The 50MA at $72,767, the 100MA at $70,374, and the 200MA at $70,199 are all sitting below current price and beginning to slope upward, which is a constructive technical development. RSI is sitting at 59.82, reflecting positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory.
At $75,000, price is now testing a key resistance zone that has capped multiple attempts over the past weeks. A clean break and hold above it would open the door to a continuation of the recovery. The short-term technical picture is the most constructive it has been since the broader downtrend began.
But the On-Chain Data Tells Another
While the chart looks encouraging, three on-chain indicators from CryptoQuant paint a more cautious picture, and taken together, they are difficult to ignore.
Whales Are Still Selling Into the Rally
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.97, below the critical 1.0 threshold. This is significant because whales and institutional players predominantly operate on Binance, meaning the data from that exchange tends to reflect the true market direction more accurately than aggregate data across all exchanges.
What the 0.97 reading tells us is that while retail buyers are aggressively chasing the rally, FOMO-ing into each upward move — larger players are consistently supplying liquidity from above, using these rallies as distribution opportunities. The inability of buying pressure to push price sustainably higher despite strong retail demand is the clearest sign of this dynamic. Unless whales shift to strong buying behavior, selling pressure is likely to persist during any sideways or upward movement.
Price Is Still Below True Market Mean
The True Market Mean Price, a core market reference level that reflects the cost basis of active market participants, currently sits at $78,300. Bitcoin is trading roughly 5% below it, with the price-to-TMM ratio at approximately 0.95.
What makes this particularly important is not just that price is below TMM, but how it got there. Since losing that level, Bitcoin has been trading sideways beneath it rather than reclaiming it, which makes the breakdown more structural than temporary. The ratio is no longer at its weakest point, which is improvement. But improvement is not the same as recovery. Until Bitcoin reclaims the $78,300 TMM level and holds above it, the structure remains under pressure.
The Supply Squeeze Building Underneath
The third indicator tells a more bullish longer-term story. Sell-side liquidity has declined to approximately 8.53 million Bitcoin — a relatively low level compared to previous periods. At the same time, demand from accumulation addresses has increased notably to around 275,000 Bitcoin over the past 30 days, reflecting continued long-term buying behavior by investors.
Most significantly, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has dropped to around 30 months, a level that reflects a meaningful reduction in the supply available for sale. Historically, when this indicator declines, it signals a liquidity shortage in the market, increasing the likelihood of sharp price movements if demand continues to rise. The fact that this is happening while price holds relatively stable around $74,000 without strong selling pressure suggests the market may be in a supply absorption phase, transitioning from sellers to long-term holders, a phase that has historically preceded strong upward movements.
Improvement, Not Confirmation
Taking all of this into account, Bitcoin is at an interesting crossroads. The technical picture on the 4-hour chart is the most constructive it has been in months, price above all three MAs, RSI healthy, and a strong recovery from the lows. But the on-chain data introduces layers of caution that the chart alone does not show. Whales are still distributing. Price is still below TMM. And while the supply squeeze building underneath is a powerful longer-term argument, it has not yet translated into a confirmed breakout.
The $75,000 resistance and the $78,300 TMM level are the two lines that matter most right now. Until both are reclaimed and held, the current move is improvement, not confirmation. And still the second round of Iran–US ceasefire talks remains the key near-term catalyst.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
