XRP Whales Are Buying: Is $1.16 the Breakout Trigger?
XRP is trading around $1.13 after recovering above its 50-day simple moving average at $1.117. The rebound has brought the price back toward $1.16, a resistance level that has repeatedly capped recovery attempts since late June.
Key Takeaways
- XRP trades above the 50-day average.
- $1.16 remains the immediate breakout level.
- Large wallets added 2.8% in five weeks.
- Micro wallets cut holdings by 5.2%.
- Bearish moving-average alignment still limits confirmation.
Price is now compressed between that horizontal ceiling and a rising support line extending from the cycle low near $1.01. The resulting structure can be read as an ascending triangle with inverse head-and-shoulders characteristics, but neither interpretation is confirmed while XRP remains below the neckline.
The technical test is developing alongside a clear divergence in wallet behavior. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million XRP increased their combined holdings by 2.8% over five weeks. At the same time, micro wallets holding less than 0.01 XRP reduced their balances by 5.2%.
Large Holders Accumulate Into the Recovery
The wallet split adds context to the rebound because larger holders have been increasing exposure while the smallest wallet cohort has been moving in the opposite direction. It does not guarantee that resistance will break, but it shows that the recovery is occurring alongside accumulation from wallets with substantially larger positions.
That makes the current test different from a bounce driven only by broad short-term participation. Large-wallet holdings have increased across the same period in which XRP built higher lows above the late-June bottom, creating alignment between the onchain trend and the developing price structure.
Micro-wallet selling also needs to be interpreted carefully. A 5.2% decline in holdings among addresses with less than 0.01 XRP represents a change in the behavior of the smallest cohort, not necessarily substantial market-wide selling pressure. The more relevant signal is the contrast between the two groups: larger wallets are accumulating while the smallest wallets are reducing exposure.
The $1.16 Level
The immediate question is whether XRP can convert $1.16 from resistance into support. Price has approached that area while holding above the 50-day average, but it has not yet produced a confirmed daily breakout.
The structure has tightened as the rising trendline moves closer to the horizontal ceiling. That compression reduces the space available for price to continue moving sideways and brings the market closer to a directional decision.
Momentum has also improved without becoming stretched. The daily relative strength index stands near 55 and has been forming higher lows, indicating that buying pressure has strengthened while remaining below overbought territory. This leaves room for continuation, but momentum alone cannot confirm the pattern.
Upside Scenario
A daily close above $1.16, supported by increasing volume, would confirm that buyers have cleared the neckline and the upper boundary of the base. The measured move from the structure could then point toward the $1.30 to $1.32 region.
The path toward that target would not be free of resistance. XRP’s falling 100-day simple moving average stands near $1.254, making the area around $1.25 the first major supply zone above the breakout level. Price would need to reclaim that average before the broader recovery could extend toward the full measured target.
A breakout without stronger volume would carry less conviction. XRP has already tested the resistance zone several times, so confirmation requires more than a brief move above it. The daily close and the market’s ability to hold the level would matter more than an intraday spike.
Rejection Scenario
Another rejection from $1.16 would keep XRP inside the base and return attention to the 50-day average near $1.12. That level is currently providing the first layer of short-term support and separates the latest recovery attempt from another move toward the lower boundary of the pattern.
If the 50-day average fails, the rising support line around $1.07 to $1.08 becomes the more important defense. That trendline connects the higher lows formed after the late-June bottom and defines the constructive side of the current setup.
A decisive loss of the rising support would invalidate the triangle structure and weaken the inverse head-and-shoulders interpretation. Under that scenario, $1.05 would return as the next visible support, followed by the cycle low near $1.01.
The Larger Trend Has Not Reversed
Although the short-term structure has improved, XRP is still building a countertrend base inside a broader downtrend. The 50-day average remains below the falling 100-day average at $1.254, while the 200-day average sits considerably higher near $1.412.
That bearish alignment shows that the longer-term trend has not yet turned. Holding above the 50-day average is an early improvement, but it is not equivalent to reclaiming the larger market structure.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
