XRP Price Stalls at $1.38 After Rejection – Who Takes Control?
XRP is consolidating near $1.38 after failing to clear its descending channel, as buyers absorb the latest decline and sellers struggle to extend it for now.
Key Takeaways
The August 27 breakout test failed
Our previous analysis of XRP’s three remaining breakout tests identified a close above $1.47-$1.50 as the first condition for escaping the descending channel.
XRP reached the channel ceiling near $1.47 and turned lower before confirming that close. The breakout never materialized, so XRP did not reach the retest stage. The previous $1.55 pivot remains untouched.
Price stalls near the channel midpoint
At the time of writing, XRP trades at approximately $1.38, down 3.1% over 24 hours. The pullback has paused around the middle of the channel after carrying price down from the latest rejection near $1.47.
The latest candles have small bodies and alternate between red and green. Buyers have so far absorbed attempts to push below the current range, while rebounds remain shallow. Neither side has produced enough follow-through to end the pause.
The lower boundary near $1.34 remains relevant if the current consolidation breaks down. XRP still has room inside the channel before reaching that line, making an immediate test of channel support premature.
Pattern invalidation requires a completed candle beneath the lower trendline and a weak attempt to recover it. The current sideways movement does not meet that condition.
RSI shows sellers have lost some momentum
The 14-period Relative Strength Index is near 41, below the neutral midpoint of 50 and its smoothed average of 47.8. The reading reflects the pressure created by the rejection, although the latest candles show that the decline has stopped accelerating.
Oversold territory begins near 30 under the conventional RSI interpretation. XRP has yet to reach that threshold. A recovery above the RSI average at 47.81 would provide the first sign of improving short-term momentum.
Derivatives still dominate XRP trading
At the time of writing, CoinGlass reports approximately $990.60 million in XRP spot volume and $4.35 billion in futures turnover. Derivatives volume is therefore about 4.39 times larger than spot volume.
The ratio has narrowed slightly from the 4.6 reading recorded in our previous analysis. Most reported trading continues to take place through derivatives. The ratio measures activity across the two markets and does not identify which side currently controls the price.
Open interest stands at approximately $3.23 billion, around $270 million below the earlier reading near $3.5 billion. The decrease shows that outstanding derivatives exposure has declined in dollar terms since the previous channel test.
CoinGlass also recorded approximately $13.21 million in XRP liquidations over 24 hours. That total covers positions already forced closed during the rolling window. No verified public heatmap level supports describing $1.35 as a liquidation wall.
- Heavy futures activity is occurring alongside lower open interest, pointing to frequent position turnover and a smaller pool of outstanding leverage. XRP has held near $1.38 while that exposure declined; any recovery would carry more weight if spot volume begins narrowing the gap.
XRP exchange reserves remain nearly unchanged
CryptoQuant places XRP reserves across tracked exchanges at approximately 2.6274 billion tokens, an increase of only 0.03% over 24 hours.
- The near-flat reading gives no indication of a broad rush to deposit XRP during the pullback.
The consolidation creates a new immediate range
- $1.37-$1.39: The current consolidation area. Buyers are absorbing declines near the lower end, while rebounds remain limited.
- $1.42-$1.45: The upper trendline now sits near $1.42-$1.43. Former support around $1.43-$1.45 forms the first recovery area.
- Approximately $1.34: The lower channel boundary becomes relevant after a confirmed breakdown from the current range. It is not under direct pressure at the time of writing.
- $1.55: The previous failed pivot returns to focus after XRP escapes the channel and holds above the breakout area.
The immediate story is the pause near $1.38. Buyers have prevented another leg lower, while rebounds remain capped. A decisive close beyond the short-term range will identify which channel boundary returns to focus.
Spot demand needs to confirm the next move
For traders, it is no longer enough for XRP to simply move out of its current consolidation. What matters more is what is driving that move.
Lower open interest shows that part of the accumulated leverage has already been cleared, but futures still dominate trading activity. That leaves the market vulnerable to short-lived moves that look like breakouts at first but quickly reverse.
A more reliable signal would come if the move is backed by stronger spot volume, a firmer RSI reading and sustained price action after the initial impulse. Without that confirmation, traders have more reason to treat the first reaction with caution rather than assume a new direction has already been established.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
