Solana Is Flashing a Signal Last Seen at the $60 Bottom
Solana’s daily RSI has dropped below 30 for the first time since its June bottom near $60, as SOL slid to within a cent of its 50% retracement.
Key Takeaways
- RSI below 30 for first time since June.
- Last sub-30 reading came at the $60 bottom.
- SOL held a cent above its 50% level.
- Moving averages still stacked in bullish order.
SOL traded at $94 at 19:19 UTC on Friday, down about 1.5% on the day, according to the Binance SOL/USDT daily chart.
The signal: RSI below 30
Then · mid-June
RSI < 30
SOL bottomed near $60
Now
RSI 27.6
SOL near $94
The Relative Strength Index measures how strong recent gains are compared with recent losses, on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings below 30 are called oversold, meaning sellers have been in control to an unusual degree.
Solana’s 14-day RSI has dropped to 27.6, about 10 points below its yellow signal line at 37.7. The only other time it went under 30 on this chart was in mid-June, just before SOL formed its low near $60 and began the rally that carried it to $125.
One earlier instance is not a pattern, and an oversold reading can stay oversold for days. What the signal does show is that selling pressure is now as stretched as it was at the start of the summer rally.
Where the sell-off stopped: $0.01
Today’s low
$92.34
↕ $0.01
$92.33
0.500 Fibonacci level
The RSI hit oversold on a sharp two-day slide. After several days pressed against the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $100, a heavy red candle cut through it and through the red 100-day SMA at $98, closing at $96. Today’s candle opened there and wicked up to $99, testing the underside of both broken levels. Sellers turned it back, and price dropped straight to the next line on the grid, the 0.500 level near $92. The low printed one cent above it before buyers stepped in.
Volume came with the move. Today’s session has traded 2.74 million SOL, about $258 million at current prices.
Half the rally, handed back
The Fibonacci grid on this chart measures the rally from the June low near $60 (the 1.0 level) to the cycle peak near $125 (the 0 level), a move of about $65. At today’s low, Solana had returned exactly half of it and sat roughly 26% below the peak.
That is what makes the timing of the signal stand out. The last time RSI dropped below 30, SOL was at the very bottom of that $65 move. This time it arrives at the halfway point, with the 50% pullback erasing the excess of the September run but not the move that came before it.
Three averages, one order
SOL now trades in the corridor between its red 100-day SMA at $98 above and its rising purple 200-day SMA at $89 below. The averages still sit in bullish order, with the 50-day above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day, so the long-term trend has not flipped despite the short-term damage. In June, the same oversold reading came with the averages stacked the other way.
Three things now meet: an RSI below 30, a low a cent above the 0.500 level, and the 200-day SMA close underneath. That gives buyers a case for a relief bounce or a period of base-building, while the broken 100-day and the $100 level form a heavy ceiling overhead.
The level book
Laid out like an order book, with resistance above and support below the current price:
What would settle it
An oversold signal is a starting point, not a verdict. The daily closes will decide which way this goes.
What a bounce would need
- Buyers keep defending the 0.500 level near $92 through the daily close, with the oversold RSI drawing in short covering
- A relief push back into the $98–$100 band, where the 100-day SMA and the 0.382 Fib sit
- A daily close back above $100, which would neutralize the breakdown and reopen the way to the 50-day SMA at $109
What a breakdown would look like
- A decisive daily close below the 0.500 level near $92, undoing today’s bounce
- RSI staying under 30, a sign that oversold conditions can stretch further
- A move to the rising 200-day SMA at $89 first, then toward the 0.618 Fib around $85, roughly 10% below the current price
Trend check
The last time this signal flashed, Solana was sitting near $60. This time it appears 57% higher, above a rising 200-day average and with its moving averages in bullish order. The short-term picture changed when $100 broke. The long-term one changes only if the 200-day and the golden pocket give way.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical levels and scenarios do not guarantee future price movement.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
