Quantum Computing Risk Is Breaking Bitcoin’s 12-Year Gold Trend, Analyst Warns
Onchain analyst Willy Woo has raised concerns that markets are beginning to price in a long-term quantum computing risk to Bitcoin, eroding its multi-year outperformance relative to gold.
Key Takeaways
- Willy Woo argues that growing awareness of quantum “Q-Day” risk is weakening Bitcoin’s long-term valuation advantage over gold.
- Approximately 4 million BTC are considered lost, yet remain theoretically vulnerable to future quantum decryption.
- Markets may be applying a structural discount to Bitcoin as investors reassess cryptographic risk and scarcity assumptions.
According to Woo’s analysis, the prospect of “Q-Day” – the moment sufficiently advanced quantum computers could break current cryptographic standards, has disrupted Bitcoin’s 12-year uptrend in purchasing power when measured in gold ounces. The shift challenges the durability of the “digital gold” thesis and introduces structural uncertainty that could influence institutional allocation decisions over the coming decade.
Broken Trend: Bitcoin’s Purchasing Power Versus Gold
For more than a decade, Bitcoin steadily appreciated relative to gold, reinforcing its narrative as a superior store of value in digital form. Woo points to a structural break in that long-term trend, with Bitcoin’s valuation versus gold slipping amid rising discussion of quantum vulnerability.
Likely, BTC will be patched with quantum resistant signatures. This doesn't fix the issue of 4M lost coins coming back into circulation.
I'd say it's 75% chance that lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork.
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 16, 2026
The market reaction is visible in recent performance: Bitcoin trades significantly below its all-time highs, while gold has regained favor among certain institutional allocators. Some strategists have reportedly rotated portions of portfolios from Bitcoin into gold, particularly for conservative mandates such as pension allocations.
The 4 Million BTC Question
Central to Woo’s thesis is the estimated 4 million BTC roughly 25–30% of total supply believed to be permanently lost due to inaccessible private keys. Although presumed immobile, many of these coins have exposed public keys onchain. In a scenario where quantum computers can efficiently run algorithms capable of deriving private keys from public keys, these coins could theoretically be recovered and reintroduced into circulation.
Such an event would materially alter Bitcoin’s scarcity profile. Woo characterizes the potential reactivation of lost coins as equivalent to years of institutional accumulation entering the market unexpectedly. Even if unlikely in the near term, the theoretical overhang may weigh on long-term valuation models.
Market Pricing and Governance Uncertainty
Woo estimates a minority probability of a hard fork scenario aimed at freezing vulnerable coins to preserve immutability principles, with the majority likelihood that Bitcoin’s governance remains unchanged. The mere existence of such debates introduces additional complexity to the asset’s risk framework.
While no imminent collapse is implied, the structural discount if sustained, could persist for years as markets weigh cryptographic resilience against physical asset security.
The AI–Quantum Nexus
The quantum risk debate intersects with accelerating advances in artificial intelligence. AI systems are increasingly used to optimize quantum algorithms, improve error correction, and reduce the computational requirements for breaking elliptic curve cryptography, the foundation of Bitcoin’s digital signatures.
Industry disclosures have acknowledged this risk. Major asset managers have referenced quantum computing as a material long-term threat to digital asset security in regulatory filings. While experts debate precise timelines, projections for practical quantum breakthroughs have shortened in some models, narrowing the perceived window for mitigation.
At the same time, AI is reshaping the energy landscape that underpins Bitcoin’s security. Global Bitcoin mining consumes an estimated 150–200 terawatt-hours annually, comparable to gold mining’s energy footprint. As hyperscale AI data centers expand, particularly in the United States electricity demand is rising sharply. Some mining operators are pivoting toward AI and high-performance computing workloads, generating materially higher revenue per megawatt than traditional mining operations.
This dual dynamic positions AI as both an accelerator of cryptographic risk and a catalyst for infrastructure evolution within Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
Gold’s Relative Stability in a Technological Era
Unlike digital assets, gold faces no cryptographic vulnerabilities. Its scarcity is governed by geology rather than code, and technological progress does not threaten its core security assumptions. In periods of heightened technological uncertainty, gold’s physical nature can appear comparatively insulated.
While AI also enhances exploration and extraction efficiency in gold mining, these advances do not undermine the metal’s fundamental store-of-value properties. The contrast highlights why some investors may favor gold amid emerging digital security concerns.
Pathways to Mitigation
Bitcoin developers have long acknowledged the need for eventual migration to post-quantum cryptographic standards. Potential solutions include new address formats, upgraded signature schemes, and phased transitions designed to preserve backward compatibility and minimize governance fragmentation.
Such adaptations would likely unfold over multiple years, reducing immediate systemic risk. Analysts note that even if vulnerable coins became technically recoverable, market behavior particularly among large holders would determine real-world impact.
Structural Discount or Temporary Repricing?
Woo’s analysis frames quantum risk not as an imminent crisis but as a structural variable increasingly embedded in valuation models. The shift challenges Bitcoin’s positioning relative to gold and introduces a technological dimension absent in traditional stores of value.
Whether markets continue to apply a long-term discount will depend on the pace of quantum development, progress toward post-quantum upgrades, and institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s adaptability. For now, the evolving debate underscores how emerging technologies can reshape asset narratives, even for systems built on cryptographic permanence.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
With over 6 years of experience in the world of financial markets and cryptocurrencies, Teodor Volkov provides in-depth analyses, up-to-date news, and strategic forecasts for investors and enthusiasts. His professionalism and sense of market trends make the information he shares reliable and valuable for everyone who wants to make informed decisions.
