NEAR’s Revenue Beat 2025 in 4 Months. Is It Crypto’s Top AI Value Play?
NEAR Protocol trades at $1.292, down from its April 17 peak of $1.48, below all three moving averages. Analyst Michael van de Poppe argues the asset is dramatically undervalued at a 34x price-to-sales ratio with revenue growing 300-500% annually.
Key Takeaways
- NEAR price: $1.292, below 50MA, 100MA and 200MA.
- April peak: $1.48 on April 17, current decline approximately 12.7%.
- Market cap: $1.7B.
- 2026 revenue first 4 months: 12M NEAR tokens = $15.6M.
- Annualized 2026 revenue projection: $40-60M.
- Pre-2026 total revenue: $10M.
- Current P/S ratio: NEAR 34x, Solana 40x, Ethereum 200x.
The Price That Is Falling And The Revenue That Is Not
NEAR Protocol peaked at approximately $1.48 on April 17. Since then it has declined consistently for two weeks, breaking below the 50MA, 100MA, and 200MA sequentially. Current price is $1.292, 12.7% below the April peak. RSI at 45.59 on the faster signal and 42.28 on the slower is approaching oversold without reaching it. The MA stack is fully bearish: 200MA at $1.359, 100MA at $1.323, 50MA at $1.302, all above current price and all declining.
The on-chain revenue data does not match this picture. According to analyst Michael van de Poppe, NEAR generated 12 million NEAR tokens in protocol revenue in the first four months of 2026, approximately $15.6M. The full year before 2026 produced $10M total. The first four months of 2026 have already surpassed the entire prior year. Van de Poppe projects the full 2026 revenue at $40-60M based on the current run rate, a 400-500% increase over 2025. The price is declining while the revenue is accelerating. At current P/S, one of those two signals is wrong about NEAR’s direction.
The P/S Comparison That Makes NEAR Look Cheap
Van de Poppe’s valuation argument centers on the price-to-sales ratio. NEAR’s current P/S is 34x. Solana’s is 40x. Ethereum’s is 200x. Web2 companies trade at 15-30x on average. OpenAI and Anthropic are trading at significantly higher multiples with less revenue than NEAR’s projected trajectory.
$NEAR is extremely undervalued.
The entire supply is circulating, and all their mechanics are build in favor of the community actively using the token.
Nobody is interested into AI <> #Crypto protocols.
And that's where the real alpha is.
The current valuation of $NEAR is… pic.twitter.com/gXdEzlVgQw
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 1, 2026
The analytical layer van de Poppe does not develop explicitly is the quality-adjusted comparison. Ethereum at 200x commands that premium because its ecosystem is the deepest, most liquid, and most institutionally embedded in the crypto space. Solana at 40x commands its premium because it has the strongest developer momentum and retail adoption among Layer 1 competitors. NEAR at 34x being cheaper than both does not automatically mean it is undervalued. It could mean the market is accurately pricing the risk that NEAR’s revenue growth does not sustain, or that its ecosystem remains smaller and less liquid than its peers.
The counter is what van de Poppe names directly: AI x Crypto. NEAR is positioning as an AI-compatible blockchain at a moment when AI infrastructure is attracting significant capital. In April’s top-10 gainers, SKY at +549% and EDGE at +96% were both AI and DePIN assets. The market is re-rating AI infrastructure assets. NEAR at 34x P/S with 400% revenue growth and AI positioning is the asset that benefits if that re-rating extends to protocols with genuine revenue rather than just narrative.
What The Revenue Model Now Requires – Updated July 16,2026
Van de Poppe’s path from approximately $50M in 2026 revenue to $585M by 2030 requires more than transaction growth. NEAR must increase both the volume processed through its products and the share of fees that ultimately accrues to the protocol and the NEAR token.
Fee Capture Is Now Measurable
One of the most important developments is the activation of the NEAR Intents fee switch at the end of February. According to NEAR’s Q2 2026 report, part of the fees generated through Intents is now captured as protocol revenue and directed toward NEAR buybacks.
The reported capture rate increased from 17.9% over the trailing 90 days to 30.5% over the trailing 30 days. NEAR also said first-party interfaces accounted for 44.9% of Intents flow. Its owned interface captures 100% of the fees it generates and directs them to buybacks.
This makes the composition of volume as important as the total. Intents activity can grow without revenue increasing at the same rate when third-party applications, solvers, or liquidity providers retain a larger share of the fees.
SimpleSwap Adds a New Distribution Channel
On June 11, 2026, SimpleSwap added NEAR Intents to its provider pool across its website and mobile applications. SimpleSwap supports more than 2,800 assets and says it has processed over 20 million swaps.
The integration gives Intents access to an established user base without requiring those users to interact directly with NEAR. It does not mean every SimpleSwap transaction will pass through Intents, because the platform selects between multiple execution providers. The revenue contribution depends on how much incremental volume NEAR Intents actually wins through that routing system.
Confidential Intents Opens Another Fee Surface
NEAR made Confidential Intents publicly available on July 6, 2026, allowing developers and integration partners to offer private cross-chain execution. NEAR reported more than $30M held in confidential balances at launch.
Privacy could attract larger traders, institutions, and AI agents that do not want transaction details exposed before settlement. The $30M balance is evidence of usage, not revenue by itself. The financial impact depends on whether confidential execution creates additional transaction volume rather than moving existing Intents activity into a private format.
The revenue model therefore depends on four measurable conditions:
- Intents volume must remain high or continue expanding.
- The protocol must maintain a capture rate above its historical average.
- First-party interfaces must retain a meaningful share of total flow.
- Integrations such as SimpleSwap and Confidential Intents must generate new fee-paying activity.
These developments give NEAR a clearer revenue engine than it had when the original article was published on May 2, 2026. They do not validate the projected $500-600M in annual revenue by 2030. The strongest warning signal would be rising Intents volume accompanied by a falling capture rate or weaker buybacks, showing that ecosystem growth is not translating proportionally into value for the protocol.
The Technical Picture And The Fundamental Thesis Are On Different Clocks
The tension in the NEAR data is a timeframe question. The technical picture, price below all three MAs, RSI approaching oversold, two-week downtrend, operates on a days-to-weeks clock. The fundamental thesis, 400% revenue growth, AI protocol re-rating, 10-15x return by 2030, operates on a years clock.
These two clocks do not conflict. A fundamentally undervalued asset can continue declining technically in the short term while its revenue grows. The question is whether the short-term technical deterioration creates an entry point that the fundamental thesis eventually validates, or whether the technical weakness is signaling something the revenue data has not yet shown, a slowdown in adoption, a competitive threat, or a broader market decline that compresses P/S ratios across all crypto assets regardless of revenue performance.
The confirmation signal for the fundamental thesis activating is a monthly close above $1.48, the April peak, with NEAR’s monthly revenue continuing above 3M NEAR tokens. That combination confirms both the price and the revenue are moving in the same direction. The denial signal is a close below $1.15, the April low, with monthly revenue falling below 2M NEAR tokens, indicating the revenue acceleration is stalling at the same time as the price structure deteriorates.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
