Cardano Rallies Past Long-Term Downtrend Amid Strong Inflows
Cardano held onto its late-July recovery on August 3 despite weakness across the broader crypto market.
Key Takeaways
- ADA is testing resistance between the 100-day SMA at $0.1984 and $0.20.
- Price remains above the former wedge boundary and support near $0.1848.
- Large Cardano addresses added more than 240 million ADA over five days.
- Derivatives flows have strengthened more consistently than spot demand.
- The Injective connection and Leios scaling system remain in testing.
ADA climbed to an intraday high near $0.196 before giving back part of the move, leaving the token around $0.19 at the time of writing.
The 100-day simple moving average sits at approximately $0.198, close to the previous swing high and the psychological $0.20 level. This places Cardano directly beneath the first major resistance area of its late-July recovery.
ADA is still forming higher lows and higher highs, but it has not yet produced a daily close through the barrier overhead.
ADA’s Wedge Breakout Meets the 100-Day SMA
Cardano remains above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $0.18, the rising trendline formed during the latest advance and the upper boundary of the falling wedge that contained price through much of 2026.
The move above the wedge ended a descending boundary that had repeatedly limited Cardano’s recoveries. Holding above the former trendline and $0.18 would preserve that improvement during an ordinary pullback.
A daily close through $0.19–$0.20 would reclaim the 100-day SMA for the first time since May. Price would then need to remain above the same area during a later pullback to show that former resistance had become support.
The current session fell short of that. ADA approached the moving average before sellers erased part of the intraday gain.
A break below $0.185 would weaken the short-term structure and increase the risk of price returning inside the wedge. The next support sits near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around $0.175, followed by the 50-day SMA near $0.165.
The 200-day SMA near $0.24 remains the next major longer-term obstacle, although it is not an immediate test while ADA trades below $0.20.
Daily RSI stood near 67. Momentum remains strong after the recent advance, but the indicator is approaching the traditional overbought threshold of 70.
Large-Address Balances Rose by 240 Million ADA
Analyst Ali Martinez, citing Santiment data, reported that large Cardano addresses added more than 240 million ADA over five days.
At approximately $0.19 per token, the increase represents around $46 million in ADA and coincided with a price gain of roughly 20%.
The figures show that balances within the monitored large-address group increased. They do not reveal whether the tokens were purchased on the open market, withdrawn from exchanges or simply transferred between related wallets.
Custodial movements and exchanges reorganizing their holdings can also change address balances without creating new demand. A simultaneous decline in exchange balances or clearer wallet attribution would provide stronger evidence of genuine accumulation.
If the increase came from purchases followed by withdrawals into longer-term storage, less ADA could remain readily available for sale. Internal or custodial transfers would have little direct effect on supply or price.
The data therefore points to increased large-address activity during the rally, but it cannot establish that those wallets caused the advance or are preparing to hold through the resistance near $0.20.
Derivatives Flows Are Ahead of Spot Demand
CoinGlass data shows positive ADA futures flows across the latest three-, five- and seven-day periods. The seven-day total reached approximately $41.8 million.
Spot flows remained slightly negative across the one-, three-, five- and seven-day windows. Only the latest four- and eight-hour readings had turned positive.
This shows that capital entered ADA derivatives more consistently than the spot market during the rally. The flow figures do not reveal whether the new futures positions were long or short.
ADA CoinGlass Flows Overview (Futures vs. Spot)
| Time Window | Futures Net Inflow | Spot Net Inflow | Futures Net Inflow / MCap | Spot Net Inflow / MCap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Hour | +$1.16M | +$1.02M | 0.017% | 0.014% |
| 8 Hour | +$7.74M | +$948.94K | 0.11% | 0.014% |
| 12 Hour | +$13.27M | +$201.27K | 0.19% | 0.0029% |
| 24 Hour | +$7.81M | -$1.42M | 0.11% | -0.020% |
| 3 Day | +$23.81M | -$1.37M | 0.34% | -0.020% |
| 5 Day | +$30.69M | -$1.33M | 0.44% | -0.019% |
| 7 Day | +$41.79M | -$320.78K | 0.60% | -0.0046% |
Funding rates, open interest and long-to-short positioning would be needed to determine whether traders were building a clear bullish bias. The rising price alongside stronger futures activity is consistent with leverage contributing to the move, but it does not show how much of that activity came from directional buying.
Spot demand matters because direct purchases require buyers to acquire ADA, while futures positions can be closed without buying or selling the underlying token. A rally relying heavily on derivatives can therefore reverse quickly when traders reduce exposure or face liquidations.
The latest positive short-term spot readings are an improvement, but the longer windows remain negative. Continued spot inflows would give the breakout a less leverage-dependent source of demand.
The Injective Connection Is Still Limited to Testnet
The Cardano Foundation announced on August 3 that Cardano and Injective are connected through the Inter-Blockchain Communication protocol, or IBC, on testnet.
JUST IN: Cardano and @Injective are now connected via @IBCProtocol on testnet.
Injective is the first chain with a live on-chain IBC rail to Cardano.$ADA is coming to @Injective.$INJ is coming to Cardano.
Both assets will be usable across the two ecosystems. pic.twitter.com/VExYG999gN
— Cardano Foundation (@Cardano_CF) August 3, 2026
The connection currently allows test ADA and test INJ to move between the two development environments. It also lets developers examine applications that exchange information across the networks.
IBC provides a common communication standard, reducing the need to build a separate bridge or messaging system for every application.
The Cardano Foundation has published a guide showing developers how to transfer test ADA between Cardano’s preproduction network and Injective’s testnet.
The price rally was already underway before the announcement, so the development cannot explain the gains recorded during the preceding days. It also creates no immediate demand for mainnet ADA because test tokens have no market value and users cannot yet move real ADA or INJ through the route.
The announcement follows the Van Rossem hard fork, which activated on July 18 and moved Cardano to Protocol Version 11. It was the network’s first hard fork proposed and approved entirely through its onchain governance process.
Van Rossem introduced additional cryptographic functions and new capabilities for Plutus smart contracts while preparing the protocol for later upgrades, including the Dijkstra era and Ouroboros Leios.
Leios is operating on a public testnet where developers and stake pool operators can examine its planned approach to increasing Cardano’s processing capacity without replacing the existing consensus system.
The economic effect of these developments will remain difficult to measure until they reach mainnet. The relevant evidence will come from applications using the infrastructure, assets transferred through it, available liquidity and sustained transaction activity.
- Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Moving averages, Fibonacci levels, wallet balances, exchange flows and technical patterns do not guarantee future price performance.
- Methodology: The analysis uses the ADA/USD daily Coinbase chart dated August 3, 2026, including the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, Fibonacci levels, volume, RSI and the long-term falling wedge. Market positioning is based on CoinGlass futures and spot flows, while large-address balance changes use Santiment data shared by Ali Martinez. Development context comes from Cardano Foundation publications covering the Injective IBC testnet connection, the Van Rossem hard fork and the Ouroboros Leios public testnet.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
