Bitcoin at $1.6M by 2036? Bitwise’s Case Rests on Gold
Bitwise’s new $1.6 million Bitcoin target cites institutional demand, scarcity and debasement fears, but one input, Bitcoin’s share of a gold-dominated market, carries about four-fifths of the model’s value.
Key Takeaways
- Bitwise targets $1.6 million per Bitcoin by 2036.
- Gold-market share supplies 82% of modeled value.
- Institutional allocations add about 9% of value.
- Bear case assumes Bitcoin’s share shrinks from today.
The San Francisco asset manager released its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 28, projecting 34.3% annual growth over the next decade. Bitwise manages more than $14 billion in client assets and sponsors a spot Bitcoin ETF, so it has a commercial stake in the asset it is forecasting.
Three outcomes from one spreadsheet
The report starts from Bitcoin’s price on September 30, 2026, which was $83,557. That was three months after the market bottomed near $58,000, a 53% fall from the October 2025 peak. From that base, Bitwise runs three scenarios to 2036.
Bear
$130,686
4.6% a year
Base
$1,599,766
34.3% a year
Bull
$3,667,911
46.0% a year
Last year’s edition pointed to $1.3 million by 2035, a 28.3% annual rate. Bitwise says the higher number reflects growth in the markets Bitcoin serves and its increased confidence in the asset. Even the new base-case rate is about half of Bitcoin’s actual 10-year compound growth of 63.5%, a gap Bitwise uses to argue that its forecast is moderate.
Every price in the model comes from the same division. Bitwise sizes seven markets for 2036, assigns Bitcoin a slice of each, adds the slices together and divides by 21 million, Bitcoin’s full supply cap. Only 20.1 million coins circulate today, and some of those are lost for good. Bitwise calls the 21 million denominator the conservative choice, because a smaller divisor would produce a higher price.
Where the $33.6 trillion comes from
Multiply the base-case price by 21 million and Bitwise is modeling Bitcoin as a $33.6 trillion asset in 2036. The table below rebuilds that total from the report’s valuation framework. Each row shows a market’s projected 2036 size multiplied by Bitcoin’s base-case share.
| Market | 2036 size | Bitcoin’s share | Value to Bitcoin | Share of total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Store of value (gold, Bitcoin) | $109.8T | 25% | $27.45T | 81.7% |
| Institutional investment assets | $303.5T | 1% | $3.04T | 9.0% |
| Emerging market currencies | $146.1T | 1% | $1.46T | 4.3% |
| Offshore wealth | $19.0T | 5% | $0.95T | 2.8% |
| National treasury reserves | $18.1T | 2.5% | $0.45T | 1.3% |
| US corporate treasuries | $8.9T | 2.5% | $0.22T | 0.7% |
| Global remittances | $1.3T | 2.5% | $0.03T | 0.1% |
Market sizes and shares are Bitwise’s base-case inputs. The value and percentage columns are Coindoo’s calculations from those inputs. Figures may not sum exactly because of rounding.
The summary of the report leads with institutions. It says allocations of 1% to 5% of the roughly $147 trillion that Boston Consulting Group counts in institutional assets would mean $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of Bitcoin buying over the decade. The base case uses the bottom of that range, a 1% allocation applied to a projected $303.5 trillion institutional market. That line adds about $3 trillion, 9% of the total.
For scale, US spot Bitcoin funds hold $108 billion less than three years after launch, according to the report. Not all of that comes from institutions, but it is the clearest public measure of the demand Bitwise describes, and it is about one-thirtieth of the $3 trillion the base case assigns to institutional portfolios by 2036.
The gold assumption underneath
Bitwise measures the store-of-value market at $31.1 trillion today and projects $109.8 trillion by 2036. That is 14.1% a year, the pace of the past decade continued for another ten years. At September’s price, Bitcoin’s 20.1 million circulating coins were worth about $1.68 trillion, or roughly 5.4% of that market. The base case raises that share to 25%.
Both inputs have to hold at the same time, and that puts a heavy assumption on gold. By Coindoo’s calculation, if Bitcoin holds a quarter of a $109.8 trillion market, gold accounts for the remaining $82 trillion. That is about 2.8 times the roughly $29 trillion gold represents in Bitwise’s starting figure, and it requires gold’s total market value to compound at close to 11% a year for a decade while Bitcoin takes share from it.
The same report contains a lower number. In its comparison with traditional assets, Bitwise averages long-term forecasts from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard and lists gold’s expected annual return at 5.5%. Bitwise also notes that gold’s supply grows close to 2% a year. Together, those imply growth in gold’s market value of about 7.5% a year, against the roughly 11% the store-of-value line requires. The two figures come from different exercises, one extrapolating history and the other averaging bank forecasts, and the report does not reconcile them.
Bitwise’s view is that its market estimate could prove very conservative. It points to rising government debt, record central-bank gold purchases of $96 billion in 2025, and the dollar’s falling share of global reserves, now 56.7%, as signs of growing demand for assets outside the fiat system. The model’s output depends heavily on that argument being right.
How to read the bear case
The $130,686 bear case gives Bitcoin nothing from institutions, reserves or corporate treasuries. It keeps only a 2.5% share of the store-of-value market, less than half its current share. It still lands above September’s price because the market it shares is assumed to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion.
Move one number
The quickest test is to change Bitcoin’s store-of-value share and leave every other input at Bitwise’s base case. Each percentage point of that market is worth about $52,300 per coin.
| Bitcoin’s store-of-value share | 2036 value per coin | Annual growth from $83,557 |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | ≈ $1.86 million | 36.4% |
| 25% (Bitwise base case) | $1.60 million | 34.3% |
| 20% | ≈ $1.34 million | 32.0% |
| 15% | ≈ $1.08 million | 29.1% |
| 10% | ≈ $815,000 | 25.6% |
| 5% (close to today) | ≈ $554,000 | 20.8% |
Coindoo’s calculations from Bitwise’s published inputs. Only the store-of-value share changes; market sizes, other categories and the 21 million denominator stay at the base case.
The bottom row shows the model’s second dependency. With Bitcoin’s share unchanged from today, the model still produces roughly $554,000, because the market itself grows. Reverse the test, keeping Bitcoin at 25% but freezing that market at today’s $31.1 trillion, and the base case falls to about $663,000. Share gains and market growth each account for roughly half of the distance between those results and $1.6 million, and both are assumptions.
The years between now and 2036
A 2036 price tells an investor little about the years in between, and Bitwise does not present it that way. It projects average volatility of 27.8%, which it describes as the midpoint between today’s level and the lower level it expects by 2036. The report says near-term volatility is likely to run above that average. The size of recent swings gives a sense of what that means: the latest cycle took Bitcoin from $126,080 to $58,800 in under nine months. Bitwise notes that if the June low holds, it would be the shallowest cyclical decline on record, after falls of 86%, 84% and 77% in earlier cycles.
Bitwise expects an average correlation of 0.43 with US stocks over the decade, above the 0.25 it measured over the past ten years. It still describes that range as low to moderate. The practical point is that a higher correlation makes Bitcoin more likely to fall alongside equities in a broad sell-off. For an investor sizing a position, these path figures matter as much as the 2036 number, a point covered in more depth in our look at turning a Bitcoin return forecast into a portfolio allocation.
The report names three threats that could break the model outright: quantum computing, AI-driven advances in mathematics that could weaken Bitcoin’s cryptography, and regulatory reversal. On regulation, Bitwise acknowledges that the Clarity Act, the US market-structure bill the industry had pushed for, failed to advance in Congress this year. It attributes that largely to Democrats’ concerns about the bill’s ethics provisions.
Where to check the inputs
Bitwise publishes these assumptions every year, and the main inputs behind the $1.6 million figure can be followed with public data:
- Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market. Divide Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the combined value of Bitcoin and above-ground gold. The base case needs that ratio to move from around one-twentieth to one-quarter.
- Gold’s market value. It makes up most of the market Bitwise is sizing, so its growth rate largely determines whether the $109.8 trillion projection is on track.
- Spot ETF holdings. They are the most visible record of institutional demand, though in this model they carry less weight than the gold assumption.
Comparing those figures with next year’s edition of the report shows whether the model’s inputs are moving toward Bitwise’s path or away from it.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Price targets cited are Bitwise’s forecasts; illustrative calculations depend on the report’s assumptions, and actual outcomes may differ materially.
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 5,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
