2028 Could Erase Crypto’s Agency Wins – JPMorgan
JPMorgan says recent SEC, CFTC and OCC moves can draw institutions into crypto, but warns they could be reversed in as little as two years without a market structure law.
The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, set out the view in a Wednesday report covered by The Block on October 22.
Why JPMorgan sees a two-year clock
The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act in September, and the bank expects it will not pass this year, though it may return in 2027. Until then, the analysts said, the industry relies on a patchwork of agency actions that “could be overturned in as soon as two years” if a Democrat wins the White House.
The bank still credits those actions. Regulator-led measures can encourage institutional participation in the near term and partly offset the Clarity Act setback, the report said. Only legislation would make the framework durable, however, and until it passes the analysts expect elevated political and legal risk premiums to persist in crypto.
Each measure rests on a different legal footing.
| Measure | Legal basis | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|
| SEC Innovation Exemption | Exemptive order | Live, five-year term, pending permanent rules |
| CFTC retail framework | Advance notice | Public consultation |
| OCC trust charters | Agency approvals | Granted, facing a community bank lawsuit |
| GENIUS Act rules | Federal statute | Final OCC rule issued October 21 |
The SEC exemption runs five years, and sentiment has shifted
The SEC issued its Innovation Exemption on September 17, days after the Clarity Act stalled. The order grants temporary, conditional relief: certain tokenized securities venues are exempted from the definition of an exchange, and certain liquidity providers from the definition of a dealer. Chairman Paul Atkins titled his statement on the order a bridge toward durable rulemaking and said the interim measure must be followed by permanent rules.
The order carries conditions. Venues must restrict access to approved participants and face trading limits, synthetic tokens are excluded, and tokenized shares must carry the same rights as the underlying stock, including dividends and voting. Issuers can also object and block their shares from trading on these venues.
The analysts tied that opt-out to market sentiment. More companies have recently chosen it, they said, and sentiment toward application tokens such as ether weakened as ETF flows and futures positioning softened. Both measures had risen in the period right after the SEC’s September announcement.
The CFTC plan is unlikely to move before 2027
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on October 5, seeking input on a framework for retail crypto trading, including leveraged trading on regulated U.S. platforms, and possibly a purpose-built category of designated contract market. JPMorgan called the plan early-stage, and its expected timing would leave little room before the 2028 election.
The analysts still see value in it. Trading that moves onshore, they said, could deepen liquidity, improve price formation and support regulated venues that institutions are more likely to use.
Stablecoin charters are harder to unwind
The OCC has granted national trust charters to a growing number of stablecoin issuers and digital asset firms, bringing custody, reserve management and issuance under federal oversight. The Independent Community Bankers of America has sued the OCC over parts of those approvals. In the report’s assessment, the charters are not immune from challenge, but once granted they tend to be difficult to unwind in practice.
A statute also sits beneath them. The OCC’s October 21 final rule implements the GENIUS Act, and both take effect on January 18, 2027, according to the agency. The rule covers reserves, redemption and risk management, while anti-money-laundering and sanctions requirements will follow in separate rulemaking with the Treasury. Operating terms can still shift within that framework, as the debate over how the OCC will assess stablecoin rewards shows.
What limits a reversal, and what to watch
A new administration could not simply erase these measures. Agencies changing course must follow required procedures, and federal law lets courts set aside agency actions that exceed statutory authority, skip required steps or are arbitrary and capricious. That protection works in both directions: the same standard applies to the community banks’ challenge to the OCC charters.
Nov 19
FASB comment period closes on treating certain stablecoins as cash equivalents.
Jan 18, 2027
GENIUS Act and OCC stablecoin rule take effect.
2027
Clarity Act could return, with the CFTC framework possible at the earliest.
Nov 2028
Presidential election, the earliest reversal point JPMorgan flags.
The nearest of those dates is FASB’s. The analysts said adopting cash-equivalent treatment would support stablecoin use beyond crypto trading, in corporate payments and liquidity management.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial or investment advice.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
