White House Warns October Jobs and Inflation Reports May Never Be Released
The U.S. economy may lose an entire month of official data. With the government shutdown dragging on, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the October employment and consumer price index (CPI) reports are unlikely to ever be released, leaving policymakers and markets without two of the most important economic indicators.
Key Takeaways:
- The White House says the October CPI and jobs reports may never be released due to the prolonged shutdown.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics has halted normal data collection and publication.
- Economists warn the loss of the household employment survey makes reconstruction difficult.
- The Federal Reserve may have to make its December policy decision without fresh data.
- Lawmakers are negotiating a short-term deal to reopen the government through January.
Normally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would publish both reports in early November. Instead, the agency has gone dark — along with most other federal statistical offices — as the shutdown has forced the suspension of routine data collection and publication.
Economists warn that even if the government reopens soon, reconstructing October’s surveys may prove impossible. Some firms can submit payroll data retroactively, but the household employment survey, which determines the unemployment rate, depends on time-sensitive phone interviews that were never conducted. “Some of the surveys were never completed, so we might never know what happened that month,” White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC.
Confusion for Policymakers
Without those reports, analysts say the Federal Reserve will be flying blind ahead of its next meeting on December 9-10, when officials are set to decide whether to cut interest rates again. “The lack of data leaves policymakers navigating in cloudy weather,” Hassett added.
Leavitt echoed that sentiment, calling the data blackout a major obstacle to understanding the labor market and inflation trends. She said Democrats “may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system” by allowing the shutdown to continue through key data-collection periods.
How the Shutdown Happened
The impasse stems from a budget standoff between Democrats and Republicans over health-care funding. Democrats initially tied their support for a temporary spending bill to extending Affordable Care Act premium subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts, proposals Republicans refused.
After more than 40 days of federal closures, a bipartisan deal finally began taking shape this week. The Senate approved a short-term funding measure to keep the government open through the end of January, and the House was preparing to vote on it late Wednesday.
Uncertain Path Forward for Economic Data
Even after funding is restored, it’s unclear how quickly agencies like the BLS can return to normal operations. Officials may opt to merge October and November data into a combined release or skip the missing month entirely. For now, no revised calendar has been published.
If the CPI and jobs reports are indeed lost, it would mark the first time in modern history that the United States failed to produce monthly inflation and employment data — a gap that could complicate everything from Fed policy decisions to Wall Street forecasts.
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