U.S. Growth Stumbles as Inflation Heats Up – What’s Next for the Economy?

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than anticipated in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of the 0.2% estimate.
This deceleration indicates potential headwinds for economic momentum.
Inflationary pressures remain a concern, as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—a key inflation gauge—rose at an annualized rate of 3.5% in Q1, surpassing the 3.1% forecast. This uptick suggests persistent inflation challenges that may influence future monetary policy decisions.
On the labor front, the Employment Cost Index increased by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with expectations. This steady rise reflects ongoing wage growth, which could further contribute to inflationary trends.
In fiscal developments, the U.S. Treasury announced a quarterly refunding of $125 billion, consistent with market expectations. This move aims to address funding needs without surprising investors, maintaining stability in the bond markets.
As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor these developments, the balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation will remain a focal point in shaping future policy decisions.