Stablecoins Processed $28 Trillion in 2025: Only 7% of Banks Have a Framework for Them
S&P Global and Chainalysis released reports one day apart reaching opposite conclusions about the same asset class. Both are right. They are describing different parts of the same picture.
Key Takeaways
- S&P Global: only 7% of 100 surveyed banks developing stablecoin frameworks, zero live pilots.
- Chainalysis: stablecoins already processed $28 trillion in real economic volume in 2025.
- Projections reach $719 trillion by 2035, $1.5 quadrillion in ceiling-case scenario.
- Stripe acquired Bridge for $1.1B, Mastercard acquired BVNK, payment networks not waiting.
- GENIUS Act yield gap redirecting institutional capital toward tokenized RWAs instead.
The Gap Between the Two Reports
S&P Global published its banking sector stablecoin assessment on April 9. Of 100 banks surveyed in Q1 2026, only 7% are developing stablecoin frameworks. None have launched live pilots. The concerns cited are structural: deposit outflows if customers move funds on-chain, intensifying competition from non-bank entities already operating in the space, and legacy infrastructure that cannot support real-time digital asset activity without extensive rebuilding.
Chainalysis published its stablecoin report one day earlier. In 2025, stablecoins already processed $28 trillion in real economic volume, a figure that excludes exchange trading noise and reflects actual business-to-business payments, cross-border treasury management, and settlement activity. By 2035, Chainalysis projects organic growth reaches $719 trillion. The ceiling-case scenario, factoring in macroeconomic catalysts, reaches $1.5 quadrillion. Stablecoin payment volumes are on track to match the combined off-chain volumes of Visa and Mastercard somewhere between 2031 and 2039.
The same asset class. One day apart. Two entirely different pictures.
Why Both Reports Are Correct
The S&P Global findings describe what banks are doing via Coindesk report. The Chainalysis projections describe what the market is doing. Those are not the same thing, and the gap between them is where the most important dynamic in stablecoins currently lives.
Stripe acquired payments infrastructure firm Bridge for $1.1 billion. Mastercard acquired BVNK to bolster its stablecoin capabilities. Standard Chartered assessed that stablecoin usage growth is running ahead of expectations. None of these are banks in the traditional deposit-taking sense. All of them are building the infrastructure that the 93% of banks not yet developing frameworks will eventually need to access, or compete against.
The banks are not wrong to be cautious. Deposit outflow risk is real. Legacy infrastructure is genuinely incompatible with on-chain settlement. S&P Global forecasts that large banks will eventually explore issuing tokenized deposits or proprietary digital assets to capture custody and issuance fees, while mid-to-small banks are expected to act primarily as fiat on-ramps and off-ramps. That is a defensible path. It is also a slow one, and the stablecoin market is developing on two tracks simultaneously, with the non-bank layer already years ahead.
The regulatory environment made the gap wider. The GENIUS Act of 2025 provided a framework but prohibited interest payments on stablecoins specifically to protect bank deposits. That single clause created a yield gap pushing institutional capital toward tokenized real-world assets instead, away from stablecoins and toward instruments that can legally offer returns. The regulation designed to protect banks from stablecoin competition is inadvertently redirecting the capital that would have flowed into stablecoins toward a different product category entirely.
The Timeline Banks Are Racing Against
The non-bank infrastructure advantage compounds with time, and the demographic clock is already running. Chainalysis estimates $100 trillion will shift from Baby Boomers to crypto-native Millennials and Gen Z between 2028 and 2048. That transfer alone could add $508 trillion in annual stablecoin volume by 2035, because the inheriting generation will not default to traditional bank rails when stablecoin infrastructure already exists and has been processing transactions at scale for a decade.
Point-of-sale integration adds another $232 trillion annually once stablecoins are embedded into merchant checkout and backend systems. That integration is happening through Stripe and Mastercard, not through the 7% of banks currently building frameworks. By the time the first live bank pilot launches, the systems processing those volumes will already belong to someone else.
The $28 trillion processed in 2025 was built almost entirely on the non-bank track. The $719 trillion projection assumes both tracks eventually converge. The question is not whether banks participate in stablecoins — they will. The question is whether they participate as architects or as access points for infrastructure they did not build.
The Infrastructure Is Being Built Without Them
The 7% of banks currently developing frameworks will eventually reach live pilots. When they do, Stripe, Mastercard, and the infrastructure layer they have been acquiring will have processed years of volume through systems the banks do not own and cannot quickly replicate. The deposit outflow risk banks are currently modeling may prove less severe than the market share risk they are not yet fully pricing, because the market is not waiting for their pilots to begin.
The non-bank layer is not constrained by the yield gap the GENIUS Act created. It is not burdened by legacy infrastructure. It acquired Bridge for $1.1 billion because the faster path to stablecoin scale is buying the rails, not building them from scratch inside a compliance framework designed for a different era.
The value in stablecoins is accumulating on the non-bank track. The S&P Global survey and the Chainalysis projections are both accurate readings of the same market, one capturing where the caution is, the other capturing where the volume is going.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
