SoftBank Earnings: Q3 Results Show Strong Turnaround on OpenAI Boost
SoftBank Group Corp. reported its Q3 FY2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, extending its return to profitability with a fourth consecutive positive quarter.
- SoftBank posted a fourth straight profitable quarter with ¥248.6 billion in net income.
- AI investments, especially OpenAI, were a major earnings driver.
- Telecom and financial units delivered strong growth and raised guidance.
- The stock is in a strong uptrend, but RSI signals short-term overbought conditions.
The Japanese investment giant posted a net profit of ¥248.6 billion ($1.6 billion) for the October–December period, reversing a ¥369 billion loss recorded in the same quarter a year earlier.
For the nine months ending December 31, 2025, net income reached ¥3.17 trillion, highlighting the scale of the turnaround. Revenue climbed 8% year-on-year to a record ¥5.195 trillion ($34.6 billion), while operating income rose 8% to ¥884.1 billion.
AI Investments Power Vision Fund Recovery
A major contributor to the improved performance was the company’s exposure to artificial intelligence. Investment gains tied to OpenAI totaled $4.2 billion during the quarter, bringing cumulative gains to approximately $19.8 billion. SoftBank’s ownership stake in OpenAI now stands at around 11%, underscoring its deepening exposure to the AI boom.
The Vision Fund segment benefited from rising valuations across AI-linked holdings, with management maintaining a relatively conservative 19% loan-to-value ratio. The disciplined leverage level appears aimed at preventing the volatility that previously pressured the fund during tech downturns.
Telecom And Financial Units Deliver Stable Growth
SoftBank’s domestic telecom arm, SoftBank Corp., reported record revenue and raised its full-year net income forecast to ¥543 billion. The subsidiary also revised its full-year revenue outlook upward to ¥6.95 trillion.
Following a 4-for-1 share split effective January 1, 2026, the expected annual dividend for FY2025 has been set at ¥11.00 per share, signaling management’s confidence in cash flow stability.
The financial segment also showed strong momentum. Revenue rose 24%, and operating income more than doubled, largely driven by performance at PayPay, which recorded an 83% jump in consolidated EBITDA.
Shift Toward Sovereign AI Infrastructure
CEO Junichi Miyakawa emphasized a strategic pivot toward what he described as “sovereign AI” and next-generation cloud infrastructure. The company is investing in large-scale “brain data centers” designed to compete with global hyperscalers and support national-level AI capabilities.
This positioning reflects SoftBank’s broader ambition to become a central infrastructure player in the AI economy rather than just a venture investor.
Technical Analysis – Momentum Strong but Overheated
SoftBank shares were trading around ¥4,817 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange following the earnings release.
The technical setup shows strong bullish momentum:
- RSI (14) is near 76–77, placing the stock in overbought territory. This suggests extended upside in the short term but also raises the risk of a pullback or consolidation.
- MACD remains firmly positive, with the MACD line around 179 above the signal line near 171, and a positive histogram reading near 7.5. Momentum is still bullish, though signs of flattening indicate that buying pressure may be slowing.
Price action recently broke above the ¥4,600–¥4,700 range, pushing toward recent highs. If momentum holds, continuation toward new local highs is possible. However, given the elevated RSI, traders may watch for short-term cooling before the next sustained move higher.
Overall, the combination of AI-driven investment gains, telecom stability, and strengthening financial services positions SoftBank as one of the more aggressive corporate beneficiaries of the global AI expansion cycle.
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