Roundhill Files First Election-Based ETFs, Bringing Political Betting to Wall Street
Roundhill Investments has taken an unprecedented step in the ETF market by filing registration documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for six funds tied directly to U.S. election outcomes.
- Roundhill has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the first ETFs tied directly to U.S. election outcomes.
- The funds use a binary structure – winners move toward $1, while losing funds could fall close to zero.
- Contracts would be sourced from markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but regulatory and total-loss risks remain high.
If approved, these products would become the first exchange-traded funds to package political prediction market contracts into a traditional ETF structure.
The move effectively brings election speculation into mainstream brokerage accounts, allowing retail investors to gain exposure to political outcomes without using standalone prediction market platforms.
The filing was submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and outlines a framework that blends event contracts with the familiar ETF wrapper.
Six Funds Target 2028 and 2026 Elections
Roundhill’s proposal includes six distinct products focused on both the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election and the 2026 Midterm Elections:
- Roundhill Republican President ETF (REDP) and Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP)
Roundhill Republican Senate ETF (REDS) and Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS)
Roundhill Republican House ETF (REDH) and Roundhill Democratic House ETF (BLUH)
Each pair represents opposing outcomes. Investors would effectively choose which political party they believe will control the White House, Senate, or House.
How the Structure Works
Unlike conventional ETFs that track diversified baskets of stocks or bonds, these funds would operate on a binary payout model.
Shares in the winning party’s ETF are expected to move toward $1 per share once official election results are certified. The opposing fund, however, could decline to near zero. That means five out of the six funds could see substantial losses depending on how election outcomes unfold.
Importantly, the products are designed to roll forward. The presidential funds, for example, would not liquidate after 2028. Instead, capital would be reallocated into contracts tied to the 2032 election cycle, creating a continuous exposure model.
To source these contracts, Roundhill plans to use Designated Contract Markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ensuring the underlying event contracts trade on federally supervised platforms.
A Regulatory Shift Opens the Door
The timing of the filing appears significant. Earlier this year, the CFTC under Chairman Michael Selig reportedly withdrew a proposal that would have restricted political prediction markets. That move signaled a more permissive regulatory stance toward event-based derivatives.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the filing as potentially groundbreaking, noting that while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi already offer election contracts, embedding them in an ETF dramatically lowers access barriers.
If approved, the structure could pave the way for similar funds tracking other real-world outcomes, including weather events, economic data releases, or even sports milestones.
Risks Remain High
Roundhill’s registration documents make clear that these products are highly speculative.
Investors could lose nearly their entire investment if they choose the wrong political outcome. In addition, the regulatory framework governing event contracts remains fluid. Authorities could still impose new restrictions or limitations, potentially affecting liquidity or even the legality of certain contracts.
Still, the proposal marks a bold attempt to expand the ETF universe into territory previously dominated by niche prediction markets. Whether regulators approve the structure may determine how far Wall Street can go in securitizing real-world events.
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