Recession Fears Grow as Polymarket Predicts 50% Chance After Tariff Shock
Polymarket, a well-known prediction platform, is now indicating almost a 50% chance of a recession in the United States this year.
This shift follows the announcement of tariffs during President Trump’s Liberation Day, which turned out to be far more extensive than anticipated. Both crypto and traditional financial markets are feeling the impact, with growing uncertainty looming over the economic outlook.
Despite the possibility of Trump revising these tariffs, the damage to the U.S.’s global reputation has already begun. Trading partners are exploring new alliances and making adjustments without involving the U.S., partly because the tariff calculations were riddled with errors and inconsistencies.
Polymarket, which gained recognition for accurately predicting the last Presidential election, is now reflecting market anxiety, with the odds of a recession climbing to nearly 50%. The sharp rise in recession predictions coincides with Trump’s unexpected move to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all allies and trading partners, an action that caught even the most pessimistic analysts off guard.
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Market analysts have also pointed out flaws in the tariff policy, including absurd errors like claiming that uninhabited islands were imposing tariffs on the U.S. One social media user even noted that some calculations appeared to have been copied from a Wikipedia chart.
The crypto community had braced for some negative reactions, but the scale of the tariffs went beyond expectations. As a result, Bitcoin’s value took a hit, mirroring the growing fears of an economic downturn. Even if the tariffs are eventually rolled back, the ripple effects on global trade may persist, as key economies like China, Japan, and South Korea are already discussing joint responses to the U.S. actions.
The fear is that these moves could encourage countries to reconsider their reliance on the U.S., potentially leading to a realignment of global trade networks.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
