Polymarket Traders See 86% Chance of U.S. Shutdown Ending This Week
A wave of optimism swept through global crypto markets on Tuesday as traders positioned for what many now believe is the final act in the United States’ record-long government shutdown drama.
For the first time in over a month, investors are treating the possibility of a political resolution in Washington as more than wishful thinking. Betting activity on decentralized prediction markets suggests that most traders expect the standoff to end before the weekend — and Bitcoin’s sharp move higher reflects that confidence.
Political Stalemate Nears Its Breaking Point
Late Monday, the U.S. Senate cleared the first major procedural hurdle toward passing a short-term spending plan, a sign that negotiations that once seemed hopelessly deadlocked are finally converging. The chamber will meet again this week to finalize the proposal before sending it to the House of Representatives.
Analysts say the rapid market reaction shows how closely digital-asset traders are watching Washington. “Crypto tends to over-respond to policy optimism,” said one London-based fund manager. “When the headlines suggest progress, liquidity rushes back almost instantly.”
Prediction Markets See Swift Resolution
Data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based forecasting platform, now places the odds of the shutdown ending by November 15 at roughly 86%, up from around 50% a week earlier. Because Congress rarely votes on weekends, traders are effectively betting on a Friday resolution.
If the pattern from previous political impasses repeats, a formal deal could be reached just before markets close for the week — providing the ideal setup for a weekend rally in risk assets.
Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance
Bitcoin briefly touched $106,000, extending a two-day surge that pushed it to its highest level since mid-October. The move carried the rest of the market higher, with Ethereum, BNB, Solana, and XRP all logging fresh weekly highs.
The rally is being read as both a relief trade and a bet that the end of the shutdown will unlock stalled government functions critical to the crypto sector — particularly those linked to regulation and ETF approvals.
What a Reopening Means for Crypto
The shutdown has frozen dozens of routine operations across U.S. financial agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, which must review and approve pending crypto ETF filings.
Market strategist Nate Geraci noted that as soon as the government reopens, “the floodgates for ETF decisions could open,” describing the SEC’s backlog as a coiled spring.
Government shutdown ending = spot crypto ETF floodgates opening…
In meantime, could see first ‘33 Act spot xrp ETF launch this week.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) November 10, 2025
Meanwhile, momentum around the long-delayed crypto market structure bill could pick up again. Lawmakers from both parties were due to hold a markup session in September, but the session was postponed indefinitely once the shutdown began in early October. Congressional aides have hinted that discussions could resume as early as December if the impasse ends this week.
ETF Hopes Fuel Additional Optimism
One near-term beneficiary could be Canary Capital, whose proposed XRP exchange-traded fund recently advanced closer to launch after it removed a delaying clause from its registration. If approved, it would become the first XRP fund structured under the ’33 Act — a milestone that could re-energize interest in digital-asset ETFs just as institutional inflows return.
That possibility, combined with the easing of political gridlock, has injected fresh momentum into crypto markets.
Market Sentiment Turns Upbeat
Crypto derivatives volumes have risen sharply, and funding rates across major exchanges turned positive for the first time in nearly three weeks — an early sign that traders are again leaning bullish. Analysts say the shift is less about euphoria and more about relief after weeks of uncertainty.
“This isn’t a speculative mania — it’s a recalibration,” said a Singapore-based analyst. “If Washington gets its act together, liquidity returns, ETF filings move, and macro risk subsides all at once. That’s a powerful alignment for Bitcoin.”
Outlook
The next few days could determine whether this optimism holds. If Congress finalizes the deal and the shutdown ends by Friday, analysts expect crypto markets to retain their upward bias into December. A prolonged delay, however, could quickly unwind recent gains.
For now, Bitcoin is holding above the $106,000 mark — a sign that traders are not waiting for confirmation. The market is already trading on tomorrow’s headline.
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