One Jobs Report Now Holds the Fate of the December Rate Decision
For the first time in months, the most influential force in global finance is not the Federal Reserve, inflation, or even rate-cut speculation — it’s silence.
With the U.S. government only recently resuming operations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to release crucial employment and inflation data, leaving investors, policymakers, and algorithmic models in the dark. The next major reading is finally in sight: the September jobs report will arrive on November 20, and it is now being treated as the event that could decide the Fed’s December rate decision.
Traders Expected a Clear Path — Instead They Got a Policy Maze
For most of the year, markets believed the story was straightforward: a cooling labor market equals more rate cuts. That logic worked for two consecutive cuts. Then sentiment shifted. Several FOMC members have started warning that weakening employment might no longer outweigh the threat of inflation that remains well above the 2% target. The assumption that “soft jobs = guaranteed rate cut” has vanished.
The Fed has reached an uncomfortable midpoint where both inflation doves and inflation hawks can claim they are right — and nobody can prove otherwise because the next set of economic data is missing.
Officials Are Sending Contradictory Signals — on Purpose or by Accident
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid has openly cautioned that cutting again could damage long-term inflation credibility while delivering little benefit to the workforce. Meanwhile, officials like Austan Goolsbee, John Williams and Alberto Musalem have also expressed reluctance toward easing further. Williams has gone furthest, saying inflation “does not appear to be heading toward target.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has refused to align with either camp and has instead emphasized uncertainty. His messaging has had one clear effect: the market no longer knows what to price in.
Traders Are Rewriting Their Bets in Real Time
The CME FedWatch tool shows what fear looks like in numbers. Just weeks ago, the market priced a December cut as highly likely. Now, probability has flipped: 44% chance of a cut, 56% chance of no change.
The shift didn’t happen because new data redirected expectations — it happened because there was no data.
The situation is unprecedented: the Fed is about to make its biggest decision of the year with fewer inputs than usual, and that forces traders to rely more heavily on speculation than statistics.
Why One Jobs Report Suddenly Matters More Than It Should
Under normal conditions, the September employment report would be routine. Now, because CPI, PPI and the October jobs report are all still missing, the November 20 release has become the single most important macro indicator before the December FOMC meeting.
The expected chain reaction is straightforward:
If jobs come in hot → odds of a December cut could collapse.
If jobs come in weak → odds of a December cut might rise, but officials could still call inflation the priority.
For the first time in a long while, the labor market may move markets without guaranteeing a policy response.
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Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
