XRP Struggles to Gain Traction as Selling Pressure Builds
XRP is showing growing signs of stress as its broader downtrend remains firmly intact, with recent price action reinforcing the view that the market is still stuck in a bearish cycle.
Since topping out in mid-2025, XRP has traded within a clearly defined descending channel. That structure has governed price action for months and, so far, sellers continue to defend every meaningful recovery attempt. The latest rebound has been no exception.
Key Takeaways
- XRP remains locked in a long-running descending channel, with sellers defending every rebound.
- Failure to test the 1-day MA200 highlights weak bullish momentum.
- Weekly support at the 1-week MA100 is critical, with a break opening the door to deeper downside.
- Falling exchange balances may help later, but they have not yet altered the bearish trend.
Failure to reclaim key moving averages
After forming a lower high in early January, XRP entered a fresh bearish leg. What stands out is the market’s inability to even test the 1-day MA200 – a level that often acts as a natural magnet during corrective bounces. Instead, price stalled well below it and rolled over quickly, signaling weak bullish conviction, according to analyst TradingShot.
Shorter-term averages tell a similar story. The 1-day MA50 and MA100 briefly slowed the decline but failed to trigger any sustained upside follow-through. As long as XRP remains capped below these trend lines, the broader downtrend remains dominant.
On the weekly timeframe, attention is now firmly on the 1-week MA100, which has acted as support during the past month. This level is becoming increasingly important, as previous bearish legs have ended only after sharp declines toward major weekly supports.
Momentum indicators remain fragile
Momentum indicators offer little comfort for bulls. The MACD on the daily chart is hovering near negative territory, with histogram bars showing limited upside momentum. RSI has struggled to push decisively above the mid-40s, a common feature during sustained bear phases where relief rallies remain shallow and short-lived.
This type of behavior typically aligns with continuation patterns rather than trend reversals, especially when combined with a well-defined downward channel.
Exchange balances send a mixed signal
On-chain data adds an interesting layer to the picture. Data visualized by Glassnode shows XRP balances on exchanges trending sharply lower, a sign that fewer tokens are readily available for immediate selling.
While declining exchange balances are often interpreted as bullish over the long term, they do not automatically stop price declines in a broader bearish market. In previous cycles, similar drops in exchange supply still coincided with extended downtrends before a durable bottom was formed.
Downside risk still dominates
If the 1-week MA100 fails to hold, XRP could be setting up for a deeper continuation move. Based on the size of prior bearish legs within the same channel, a decline of roughly 40% would not be out of character. That scenario would place downside targets near the 1.45 area, a level that aligns with the lower boundary of the broader descending structure.
For now, the technical message remains clear: as long as XRP cannot reclaim major moving averages and break out of its channel, the path of least resistance continues to point lower.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
