Is Bitcoin Bottoming? On-Chain Data and Macro Signals Are Starting to Align
The noise around Bitcoin right now is loud - most of it bearish. But strip away the sentiment and look at the data, and a different picture starts to emerge.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s MVRV score is entering undervaluation zones last seen at major bear market bottoms (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022)
- The 2024–2025 bull run saw no retail FOMO spike, suggesting a shallower correction is needed before the next leg up
- Miner capitulation signals and hash ribbon recovery point to a potential market bottom forming now
- Institutional buyers are absorbing supply near Bitcoin’s production cost floor (~$70K), while global liquidity conditions are improving
Analyst Michael van de Poppe has been pointing to the MVRV ratio as a key metric worth watching. The MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value — compares Bitcoin’s current price to the median price at which coins were actually acquired. When the ratio turns deeply negative, it historically marks periods of peak fear and maximum capitulation. Right now, it’s entering that territory.
The zones Bitcoin is moving into are comparable to the lows of H2 2022, the COVID crash of March 2020, Q4 2018, and the prolonged bear market of 2015. That’s not a guarantee of anything, but it’s a pattern that has preceded every major recovery in Bitcoin’s history.
What makes this cycle unusual, however, is what didn’t happen on the way up. The 2024–2025 run produced no significant MVRV spike. Previous peaks — 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 — all showed extreme overvaluation readings as retail piled in late. Not this time. There was no parabolic blow-off, no mass retail FOMO, no euphoria in the data. Van de Poppe’s interpretation: a shallow bull cycle means a shallow correction. The downside doesn’t need to match what it would have been had the upside gone vertical. That logic is hard to dismiss.
Miners Are Capitulating – and That’s a Buy Signal
On the mining side, the Hash Ribbon indicator is flashing a recovery signal. As of late February 2026, the 30-day hashrate average climbed back above the 60-day — a classic sign that the worst of miner capitulation is over. The pattern has appeared at or near major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
The Puell Multiple, which measures current miner revenue against the yearly average, sits at 0.64 as of early March. Readings below 0.8 have historically marked accumulation zones. Miners who survived the shakeout are stabilizing. The weak hands in the mining industry have already sold.
Institutions Are Buying. Retail Is Still Scared.
After five consecutive weeks of ETF outflows totaling $3.8 billion, institutional capital returned sharply. On March 2 alone, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $458.2 million in net inflows. Meanwhile, addresses holding over 10,000 BTC increased by 2.1% — whales accumulating while smaller traders sit on the sidelines or exit.
Bitcoin is currently trading near the production cost floor of roughly $70,000, a level of financial stress for miners not seen since the FTX collapse in November 2022. That’s not a comfortable place to be — but it also tends to act as a gravitational floor. Miners don’t sell below cost indefinitely.
The Macro Backdrop Is Shifting
The Federal Reserve has begun injecting $40 billion per month into the financial system to ease funding pressures — a shift from tight to neutral monetary conditions. On December 31, 2025, banks pulled a record $74.6 billion from the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, signaling year-end stress. That forced the Fed’s hand on liquidity — and historically, forced liquidity has preceded risk-on recoveries in Bitcoin.
The Global Liquidity Index is rising sharply, with some analysts drawing comparisons to the late stages of the 2016–2021 cycle. If that parallel holds, the second half of 2026 could look very different from the first.
None of this means the bottom is definitively in. But the confluence of on-chain signals, miner data, institutional behavior, and macro conditions is harder to ignore than at any point in the past two years. The majority expecting lower prices may be right — or they may be the last wave of capitulation the market needs before it turns.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
