Is a July Rate Cut Back on the Table for the Fed?
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has suggested that a rate cut could be on the table this month, despite Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed, Waller noted that current policy remains restrictive and hinted that easing could be justified soon.
His comments come just a day after the Fed released minutes from its June meeting, which highlighted concerns about the inflationary impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs. However, Waller believes the Fed should look past those potential price pressures and instead focus on broader economic signals—particularly the absence of inflation threats.
Waller has voiced similar views before, maintaining that the economy is in a good position for rate cuts. His latest remarks appear to align with President Donald Trump’s call for an aggressive 300 basis point reduction, aimed at reinforcing economic momentum and capitalizing on record highs in the stock and crypto markets.
Despite the pressure, Powell remains committed to a data-driven approach, favoring patience. Trump, frustrated by the Fed’s inaction, has even called for Powell’s resignation.
Meanwhile, speculation over a July rate cut remains slim. Polymarket data suggests a 95% probability that rates will stay unchanged at the July 30 meeting, while CME FedWatch places the likelihood at 93.3%. Strong employment figures earlier this month further reduced expectations for immediate easing.
As election pressures mount and inflation shows little sign of resurgence, all eyes remain on how the Fed balances economic signals with political noise.
Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
