Goldman Sachs Scraps Recession Warning After Surprise Tariff Delay from Trump
Goldman Sachs has quickly withdrawn a newly issued U.S. recession forecast following a sudden move by former President Donald Trump to ease up on proposed trade tariffs.
The investment bank had earlier flagged a 65% chance of a downturn within the next year, only to reverse course within hours.
On Wednesday, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team shifted to a recession baseline after new country-specific tariffs took effect. But less than an hour after that call, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was hitting pause on a broad set of reciprocal tariffs—excluding China—for 90 days, limiting new import duties to a 10% minimum.
Markets responded immediately, with stocks climbing on hopes of reduced trade tensions. By 2:10 p.m. in New York, Goldman reversed its stance, citing the White House’s new tone.
The firm clarified that while the 10% baseline and existing tariffs remain, the temporary halt on additional measures means the economic impact could closely mirror their prior, non-recessionary expectations.
The episode highlights the volatile nature of U.S. trade policy and its outsized influence on economic outlooks. For Goldman, what began as a warning of imminent economic slowdown became a case study in rapid recalibration.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
