Gold Consolidates at Record Levels While Silver Keeps Pressure On
Gold and silver are holding near the top of an aggressive rally, with gold around $4,725/oz and silver near $95, as markets price in rising geopolitical risk and renewed trade-war concerns.
The bid for precious metals strengthened after Donald Trump threatened to impose escalating tariffs from February 1 on eight European countries unless the U.S. is allowed to purchase Greenland, reviving fears of a fresh global growth shock.
Key takeaways
- Gold is hovering near $4,725/oz after a sharp breakout to record highs.
- Silver is consolidating near $95 after a strong multi-day climb.
- Technicals show momentum cooling but not breaking—more consolidation than reversal so far.
- Macro tailwinds remain strong: tariff risk, rate-cut expectations, central bank buying, and ETF inflows.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo attributed the move to growth concerns tied to tariff threats and expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, saying these forces are pushing gold to new highs. Gold is up 9.5% in the first 20 days of 2026 and more than 70% since Trump’s second term began, supported by geopolitical tensions, easing expectations, central bank buying, and ETF inflows.
Technical picture: breakout, then digestion
Gold (XAUUSD): The chart shows a clear regime shift after a sharp upside impulse around January 18, lifting price into a higher range and then accelerating into the $4,700s. Price is now consolidating near $4,725, suggesting the market is digesting gains rather than collapsing back into the prior range.
Momentum indicators align with that “cooling, not reversing” setup. The RSI is mixed, with the fast read near 58.9 while the broader RSI read is closer to 44.1, a combination that often appears when a strong move starts to lose speed but hasn’t yet rolled into a full trend change. The MACD has turned soft/negative (histogram below zero), which typically signals fading upside momentum and raises the probability of sideways consolidation—or a shallow pullback—before the next directional move.
Key technical focus is whether gold holds above the post-breakout zone (roughly the mid-$4,600s to $4,700 area). As long as price remains elevated and does not fully retrace the breakout leg, the trend structure remains constructive.
Silver (XAGUSD): Silver’s chart also shows a strong upward push, with price now around $95.05 and repeatedly probing the upper end of the recent range. Unlike gold’s more explosive vertical leg, silver’s climb looks more like a steady staircase higher, followed by tight consolidation near the highs.
Momentum remains firmer in silver than gold. The RSI sits around 51.1 with a secondary reading near 57.2, which is typically consistent with an uptrend that hasn’t become severely overextended. The MACD is near flat/slightly negative (a small pullback in momentum), again suggesting consolidation risk rather than a clean breakdown.
Safe-haven demand accelerates as policy risk rises
The macro narrative remains highly supportive. Instability in policy and politics is pushing investors toward traditional stores of value, while expectations of lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. Investors are also watching a U.S. Supreme Court case that could clarify whether a president can dismiss Federal Reserve governors at will, adding another layer of institutional uncertainty.
Silver has additional structural support beyond the safe-haven angle. After gaining 147% in 2025, the metal is up 33.7% year-to-date, helped by its U.S. critical mineral designation and a persistent market deficit amid rising demand.
Staunovo said UBS continues to see further upside, with a $5,000/oz target for gold. From a technical standpoint, the charts suggest the same thing in a different language: both metals have broken higher, and while momentum is cooling, price is still holding near the highs—an environment that often resolves with either continued grind-up or a controlled retracement before the next leg.
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Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
