Forget Gold – The Yen Is 2025’s Silent Safe Haven Winner
As gold continues to capture headlines with its record-breaking rally past $3,500, another safe-haven asset has been quietly making waves—the Japanese yen.
Often overlooked in recent years, the yen is now enjoying one of its sharpest rallies in more than a decade, climbing 12% since the start of 2025 and hitting its strongest level against the dollar since September 2024.
What’s behind this resurgence? Mounting geopolitical tension, fear over U.S. economic fragility, and a bitter feud between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have all shaken confidence in American markets. With uncertainty clouding the outlook for U.S. equities and the dollar, investors are dusting off a classic defensive play: long yen, short S&P 500. That trade alone would have returned 24% year-to-date.
Trump’s increasingly public attacks on Powell—accusing him of acting out of political motives and even floating the idea of replacing him—have only fueled concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. In turn, this has driven demand toward non-dollar safe havens like gold and the yen.
Analysts say the yen’s momentum may be far from over. ING strategist Francesco Pesole noted that the dollar-yen pair has dropped below the psychologically important 140 level, with further downside possible if currency talks heat up during upcoming U.S.-Japan meetings. BBVA’s Alejandro Cuadrado echoed this sentiment, pointing to the yen’s haven appeal, strong macro fundamentals, and Japan’s consistent monetary stance as key drivers.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan appears committed to its cautious tightening approach, even as inflation estimates are adjusted due to yen strength. That consistency has only reinforced the currency’s attractiveness in uncertain times.
Goldman Sachs strategist Kamakshya Trivedi added another layer to the story, pointing out that the yen historically outperforms when both stocks and bonds sell off simultaneously—especially when market volatility spikes. With the CBOE Volatility Index on the rise and recession fears growing, the yen may continue to shine in the months ahead.
Though overshadowed by gold’s explosive run, the yen’s quiet strength is proving just as telling—offering a clear signal of where global capital is seeking shelter.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
