Fed Rate Decision Nears as Markets Watch Powell Closely
Traders are nearly unanimous: the Federal Reserve likely won’t cut interest rates today.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch, the probability of holding the rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50% sits at 99.9%. Despite solid job growth, lower labor participation and persistent 2.8% core inflation complicate the outlook.
Fed watchers aren’t looking for action—they’re waiting for guidance. Powell’s words, especially on inflation and tariffs, will steer market sentiment far more than the rate decision itself.
Dot Plot and Tariffs Will Set the Tone
Today’s FOMC update includes the latest dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections, which could show whether the Fed expects rate cuts later in the year. Powell’s comments on paused reciprocal tariffs and the 10% levy rollout may also hint at the inflation picture.
Although inflation data shows no direct impact from tariffs so far, Powell’s read on potential risks will shape policy expectations.
Trump’s Criticism Adds Political Weight
While economic factors dominate the discussion, political pressure adds tension. President Donald Trump has voiced strong dissatisfaction with Powell’s stance. With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, some expect Trump could seek a leadership change at the Fed if re-elected.
Still, Powell is expected to keep his message clear: inflation remains the key concern, and policy changes depend entirely on the data.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
