Fed May Be Forced Into Action, Top Strategist Warns

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, believes the Federal Reserve will deliver two rate cuts this year as inflation lingers and growth slows.
Speaking on CNBC’s The Exchange, Stovall said investors are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, but the backdrop remains challenging.
Inflation, he noted, is still “sticky,” while signs of a weaker labor market are emerging.
Stovall projects annual core PCE inflation will stay above 3% in 2025, leaving the Fed with limited room to maneuver. He sees a possible rate cut in September, no action in October, and a second cut in December.
According to him, these moves would offer modest stimulus without reigniting inflation.
Weak Confidence and Slowing Growth
The strategist pointed to housing as a key gauge, noting that builder confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2022. Consumer confidence remains subdued as well, reinforcing the need for policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the next 12–18 months.
Stovall added that tariffs continue to weigh on growth, with U.S. GDP likely slowing to around 1.8–1.9% in the third and fourth quarters. He expects a modest recovery to 2% growth in 2026.
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