Bitcoin Price: 3 Bearish Signals Point to Deeper Drop
After briefly topping $117,000 on enthusiasm around the Fed’s latest rate cut, Bitcoin has stumbled back toward $112,000, reigniting concern that September’s reputation as a difficult month for crypto may hold true once again.
Analyst Joao Wedson, CEO of research firm Alphractal, pointed to three warning signs that suggest Bitcoin’s latest rally is losing steam. The first involves the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key on-chain gauge of whether coins are being sold at a profit or a loss.
While the SOPR still sits above the breakeven level of 1, Wedson noted that it has begun trending lower. That downshift implies that sellers are pocketing less from their transactions, signaling that profitability is shrinking even as prices remain high.
Pressure From Short-Term Holders
Wedson also highlighted the realized price for short-term holders, currently hovering near $111,400. With Bitcoin trading so close to this level, any slip beneath it could unleash a wave of stop-loss selling, further amplifying downside momentum.
Risk-Reward Looks Less Attractive
Finally, Wedson argued that the current cycle lacks the same risk-adjusted payoff that past bull runs offered. Despite Bitcoin’s higher headline price, the Sharpe ratio – a measure of return relative to risk – has weakened. That suggests investors face more volatility with less potential reward compared to earlier cycles.
Altcoins Waiting in the Wings
Taken together, these factors point to an exhausted cycle, according to Wedson. He added that market enthusiasm could soon pivot away from Bitcoin itself and into altcoins, where traders may see greater opportunities for fresh upside.
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Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
