Bitcoin Is Stuck Around $67,000: On-Chain Data Explains Why, and What Comes Next
Bitcoin's price failed at the 50 SMA on April 2 and has not recovered. The Supply in Profit metric just entered territory last seen in the post-FTX collapse. The data explains the stall, and what breaks it.
- Bitcoinis trading below the 50 SMA at $67,266 with RSI at 47.
- Supply in Profit has entered the Bottom Discovery band for the first time since the post-FTX collapse in 2022.
- The transition from Overheated Zone to Bottom Discovery happened in a single vertical flush.
- Selling is coming exclusively from 0–12 month cohorts – long-term holders remain largely inactive.
The Price and the Rejection
Bitcoin rallied from $65,000 on March 30 to a peak of $69,200 on April 1, a move built entirely on ceasefire optimism around the Middle East conflict. Then it ran into the 50 SMA at $67,266 on April 2 after Trump’s promises for hitting Iran “Extremely hard” and stopped.
At the time of writing, price had slipped back to $66,773, the RSI was sitting at 47.08, just below the neutral midpoint, and volume on the right edge of the chart was declining. The SMA is curling downward. The market tried to recover. The 50 SMA told it no.
The rejection matters not because of the level but because of what the on-chain data shows was happening beneath it, and why the rally could not sustain itself despite a genuine macro catalyst.
The Signal That Has Only Appeared Three Times in Bitcoin’s History
According to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Supply in Profit Market Bands, the Supply in Profit metric has dropped to 11.3M BTC, placing it inside the Bottom Discovery band for the first time since 2022. This band has appeared at three specific points in Bitcoin’s history: the depths of the 2018/2019 crypto winter, the Black Thursday liquidity event of 2020, and the post-FTX collapse washout of 2022. Each marked a major cyclical low.
What makes the current reading significant is speed. The market moved from the Overheated Zone to Bottom Discovery in a single vertical flush, not gradually, not over weeks, but in one sharp move. The “Mania” phase has been completely replaced by what CryptoQuant calls “Seller Exhaustion.” Those remaining in the market are largely long-term HODLers whose cost basis is significantly below current prices, or buyers who are underwater but refusing to sell.
This does not guarantee a V-shaped recovery. What it historically signals is that downside risk is becoming increasingly exhausted relative to upside potential. The Supply in Profit data says the flush happened. The cohort data says exactly who did it.
Who Is Actually Selling
Since February 6, 2026, when Bitcoin entered its sideways range, the structure of exchange inflows has become readable with unusual clarity. The dominant selling is coming from the 0-12 month cohort, short-term holders and recent entrants who bought during the late cycle and are the most sensitive to price movement. These are the participants who feel every decline most acutely and respond by exiting.
What is not happening is equally important. Cohorts older than 12 months remain largely inactive. There are occasional spikes in long-term holder inflows, but no sustained flow. This is not distribution from long-term holders, it is selective, event-driven activity at most. Weak hands are supplying the market. Stronger holders are not participating on the sell side.
That split explains the price behavior precisely. Despite persistent selling from short-term cohorts, Bitcoin is no longer responding with the same downside follow-through. The market is absorbing supply, but not translating it into continued decline. The Coinbase Premium Index confirms the same shift from a different angle. After spending extended periods in deeply negative territory, signaling persistent weakness in U.S. spot demand, the index has begun compressing toward zero as the range developed. The discount was still there. The reaction stopped matching it.
The Warning the Bulls Cannot Ignore
The picture above is genuinely constructive. But one data set is pointing in the opposite direction – and it matters.
Stablecoin total supply on spot markets has been declining since early 2026, meaning new capital inflows into the crypto ecosystem are drying up rather than building. At the same time, stablecoin reserves inside derivative exchanges are rising even though Open Interest remains flat.
Participants are either positioning for short bets anticipating further decline, or topping up margins to prevent forced liquidations. Either way, the derivatives market has the positioning to trigger sharp downward volatility at the same moment spot inflows are shrinking.
For the structural improvement visible in the Supply in Profit and cohort data to translate into price recovery, new capital needs to enter the spot market and stablecoin supply needs to reverse upward. Until that confirmation arrives, the derivatives layer represents a live risk that could overwhelm the underlying exhaustion signal, particularly in an environment where the macro backdrop remains hostile and sentiment is at Extreme Fear.
What the Data Actually Concludes
Here is what all of it adds up to: the sellers might be nearly done. The buyers have not shown up yet. That gap is why price is stuck below $67,000.
If recovery follows, the mechanism is specific. Short-term holders can only sell what they own – and with each exit, there are fewer of them left to sell at these prices. Long-term holders are not adding supply. As the short-term seller pool empties, the market needs progressively less buying pressure to hold price steady and eventually push it higher. The Coinbase Premium compression suggests U.S. institutional demand is quietly returning even without making headlines. A single positive macro catalyst, a ceasefire signal, a Fed pivot, or a sustained stablecoin supply reversal – landing on that structure would find significantly less resistance than the current price implies. The Supply in Profit entering Bottom Discovery territory means the historical probability of meaningful additional downside from this level is lower than at any point since the FTX collapse.
If the stall continues or deepens, the mechanism is equally specific. Less stablecoin supply means fewer buyers waiting on the sidelines – and the sidelines are where recoveries come from. Derivative reserve buildup without OI expansion means the market is not attracting new participants, it is recirculating existing ones into increasingly leveraged positions. If a macro shock arrives in that environment, another escalation on Iran, a disappointing NFP report, a derivatives cascade, the derivatives layer amplifies it downward through forced liquidations before spot buyers can absorb the move. The 50 SMA rejection confirmed that the current buyer base lacks the conviction to overcome overhead resistance without a new catalyst. Fear and Greed at 8 means sentiment has room to deteriorate further before it reaches the kind of extreme that historically forces a reversal.
Selling is real. But it is coming from the most reactive participants. Stronger holders remain inactive and supply continues to lock up. Not a clean bottom. Not clean distribution either. When the trigger arrives it will find a market with less resistance beneath it than $66,773 suggests, but the trigger has to arrive first.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
