What Are the Odds of a Fed Rate Cut Tomorrow, According to Polymarket?
As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its next interest rate decision on May 7, 2025, prediction markets are sending a clear signal: expect no change.
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform that lets users wager on real-world events using cryptocurrency, traders are placing overwhelming odds—98%—on the Fed maintaining current interest rates.
Polymarket provides real-time insight into public expectations by aggregating and pricing bets on outcomes ranging from politics to macroeconomics.
In the case of tomorrow’s Fed meeting, the market shows only a 1.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the likelihood of a more dramatic 50+ basis point cut or any rate hike is priced at less than 1%.
With inflation still elevated and economic data showing mixed signals, the strong consensus in betting markets reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its cautious wait-and-see approach—keeping interest rates steady as it monitors progress toward its dual mandate.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
