Wall Street Sounds the Alarm as 2025 Recession Odds Soar
Fears of a looming U.S. recession have intensified, with betting markets now pricing in a 72% chance of an economic downturn next year.
The figure marks the highest probability seen in 2024 so far, jumping 20 percentage points in just one week.
The spike comes on the heels of disappointing government data showing the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, shrinking at an annualized pace of 0.3%. The decline was largely driven by a steep rise in imports—up 41%—a consequence some analysts tie to President Trump’s revived tariff policy. The import surge sharply reduced net exports, dragging GDP despite a temporary lift from inventory accumulation.
Consumer spending also showed weakness, slowing to 1.8%, its softest pace since mid-2023. While stockpiling helped buoy the topline GDP figure, underlying demand appears to be losing steam.
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Labor market data released this week has further spooked observers. Private-sector hiring slowed significantly in April, with only 62,000 jobs added—almost half the expected figure and the weakest performance since last summer. Job openings also fell to 7.19 million, touching levels not seen since 2020.
Major voices on Wall Street aren’t optimistic either. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon has cautioned that even a “mild” recession may be the best-case outcome under current trade and inflationary pressures. Economist Steve Hanke sees a far darker picture, putting the recession probability at 90% and drawing comparisons to the conditions that preceded the Great Depression.
Some experts argue the recession is already here. David Rosenberg, a long-time market strategist, claims the slowdown is already visible across large parts of the economy, estimating that over half of U.S. economic activity is already in contraction territory.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
