US Market Activity Could Spark Bitcoin Rally, Analyst Says
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) having one of its weakest first quarters in 2025, hopes remain for a market rebound in the second half of the year.
According to analyst Axel Adler, rising activity on U.S.-based crypto exchanges may signal an upcoming bullish trend.
Adler points to a reversal in the “US vs. Offshore Ratio,” a metric tracking Bitcoin transfer volumes between U.S. and international exchanges. The ratio had been declining since BTC’s all-time high in January but is now trending upward — a sign that U.S. markets are regaining influence, as seen during past bull runs.
Notably, the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) recently crossed above the 365-day SMA — a pattern that historically preceded major Bitcoin price increases. Adler highlights that a similar crossover occurred when BTC was near $60,000, followed by a significant rally shortly afterward.
While the signal is promising, analysts caution that only time will confirm whether this reversal truly marks the start of Bitcoin’s next leg up.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
