Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Revive U.S. Manufacturing — But Economists Remain Skeptical

President Donald Trump continues to double down on tariffs as a key pillar of his economic strategy, framing them as a tool to reignite American manufacturing.
But leading economists—and now major corporate players—are casting doubt on the short-term viability of this approach.
A new report from Wells Fargo highlights a persistent challenge: U.S. manufacturing employment remains significantly below its 1979 peak of 20 million jobs, currently sitting at just 12.8 million. According to Wells Fargo economist Sarah House, there’s little evidence that Trump’s aggressive trade policy will meaningfully reverse that trend.
“An aim of tariffs is to spur a durable rebound in U.S. manufacturing employment,” House wrote. “However, a meaningful increase in factory jobs does not appear likely in the foreseeable future.”
Trump recently threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union and a 25% levy on Apple products—unless iPhones are made in the U.S. But analysts warn that relocating tech manufacturing would dramatically inflate costs, making domestic production unrealistic for many companies.
The business world is already feeling the pinch. Retailers like Amazon and Walmart have raised alarms, saying tariffs are forcing them to either absorb higher costs or pass them on to consumers. That’s hurting margins and discouraging hiring, not expanding it.
Wells Fargo also noted that meaningful reshoring of manufacturing would take years and require long-term investment running into the trillions. High labor costs and a shortage of skilled workers remain major barriers.
As Pandora CEO Alexander Lacik pointed out, “I employ up to 15,000 craftspeople in Thailand. I can’t find that amount of talent with craft experience in the U.S.”
In the face of such hurdles, Trump’s tariff strategy may signal intent—but not a quick or easy path to a manufacturing renaissance.