S&P 500 May Be Ready to Rebound, But Long-Term Bull Run Nears Its End

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, suggests that the S&P 500 may be poised for a rebound following a steep pullback.
In a recent post on X, he pointed out that the index has dipped significantly below its long-term growth path—a pattern that, historically, signals potential for recovery.
Timmer compared the market’s movement to that of a pendulum, swinging from overbought to oversold territory.
He notes that the S&P 500 has moved from well above its exponential trendline to well below it, which he interprets as investors possibly having overreacted. If the index can reclaim key levels, it may mark the beginning of a fresh upward phase.
Despite this near-term optimism, Timmer cautioned that the broader trend that began after the 2008 financial crisis could be nearing its end. He believes the era of U.S. market dominance, driven by tech giants, is starting to wane.
As global dynamics shift—particularly with themes like deglobalization and challenges to the dollar’s dominance—investors may begin to pivot toward undervalued sectors and international opportunities.
According to him, the decade-long leadership of U.S. mega-cap stocks is losing momentum. A move toward value stocks and markets outside the U.S. could define the next investment cycle, especially if the post-crisis bullish trend gives way to a new, slower-growth environment.