SMCI Stock: Traders Brace for Sharp Moves Ahead of Q3 Results
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results later today, drawing intense attention from traders after a volatile session that saw the stock close 4.37% lower at $48.53.
Key TakeawaysSMCI reports Q3 earnings later today amid high volatility.
- Forecasts: $7.33B revenue, $0.28 EPS.
- Traders eye updates on AI backlog and margins.
- New federal AI unit boosts long-term outlook.
The company’s performance will serve as a crucial gauge of how demand for artificial-intelligence servers is holding up amid shifting order schedules and supply chain pressures.
Analysts expect revenue of about $7.33 billion and earnings per share near $0.28, marking a steep drop from last year’s levels as margins tighten and shipment timing becomes unpredictable. Despite the weaker outlook, options data signal that investors are bracing for big moves – the at-the-money straddle implies a 12% post-earnings swing in either direction.
SMCI shares remain up roughly 70% year-to-date, supported by a $12 billion backlog of AI system orders that could begin converting into revenue over the next two quarters. Bulls argue that any upbeat guidance on backlog deliveries or gross-margin recovery could reignite momentum, while bears warn that slowing growth could trigger another round of profit-taking.
Technical Setup Favors Caution
TradingView data show a broadly bearish tone heading into the report. The daily technical summary flashes Sell, with 12 indicators pointing lower against only four suggesting buys. Both the RSI (44.09) and MACD hint at fading strength, while moving averages lean negative.
The chart reflects that weakness: after an impressive rally through the summer, SMCI has been consolidating below the $50 level, and a break beneath recent lows could open room toward the mid-40s. Conversely, a strong beat paired with upbeat guidance could push the stock back toward $55-$60, where analysts from Rosenblatt and Mizuho have placed their targets.
Expanding Into the Federal AI Market
Alongside the earnings anticipation, Super Micro recently announced the creation of Super Micro Federal LLC, a new subsidiary focused on supplying high-performance AI systems to U.S. government agencies. The company aims to deliver TAA-compliant, U.S.-manufactured infrastructure based on NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin NVL144 and NVL144 CPX platforms, positioning itself to capitalize on the Biden administration’s push to modernize federal data operations.
CEO Charles Liang said the company’s Silicon Valley facilities give it a unique advantage in producing first-to-market AI solutions built entirely in America. Super Micro is also exploring new manufacturing sites to support domestic production, echoing moves by other AI infrastructure players such as CoreWeave.
What Investors Should Watch
All eyes will be on the company’s post-earnings call for clues about revenue cadence, the delivery timeline of its multibillion-dollar backlog, and commentary on GPU supply from partners NVIDIA and AMD. If management provides a clearer roadmap for federal-sector growth or stronger visibility into upcoming AI platform rollouts, investors could see renewed confidence in the stock’s long-term narrative despite short-term weakness.
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