Recession Risks Rising, But Bitcoin Offers Unique Upside, Says Economist
Economist Alex Krüger is adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of what he believes could be a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Krüger signaled that early warning signs of a significant economic deceleration—potentially even a recession—are beginning to surface. He expects the effects to start becoming evident by June, with confirmation likely to show up in economic indicators by July.
To manage the uncertainty, Krüger is scaling back risk across his portfolio but maintains exposure to Bitcoin, which he describes as having a unique dual nature—part risk asset, part digital gold. While acknowledging his personal bias, he believes BTC offers an unusual kind of asymmetry: it may perform well whether markets rally or turn defensive.
Looking ahead, Krüger sees the second half of 2025 as wide open. He’s not ruling out either a powerful bull run or a major market downturn akin to the 2008 crash.
The deciding factor, he says, could be the direction of policy under President Trump’s second term, particularly around fiscal decisions like tax cuts. For now, Krüger is working off a middle-ground assumption but warns that Trump’s return has introduced a level of political unpredictability that adds a “massive left tail” to market risk—something that wouldn’t typically be priced in.
As for altcoins, Krüger urges caution. Despite recent excitement in the space, he advises against chasing rallies in a volatile macro environment. “There will be dips—many of them,” he adds, suggesting that patience will likely be more rewarding than fear-of-missing-out behavior.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
