Raoul Pal: We’re Entering the Next Banana Zone
Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and macro strategist, has once again emphasized that the current crypto market cycle has little to do with Bitcoin halvings—and everything to do with global liquidity cycles and debt refinancing.
Pal dismissed the notion that BTC‘s rise is tied to predictable four-year halving events. Instead, he argued that markets are behaving in line with longstanding debt and liquidity patterns, consistent with what he terms the “banana zone” phases of a financial cycle.
“They’re rolling the debts. They’re doing the same thing,” Pal explained. “Each phase, we get phase one of the banana zone… then a correction, then banana two… correction again… and then banana three.”
This “banana zone” framework, he said, mirrors previous expansions like those seen in 2017 and 2020–2021, with multiple waves of rapid price appreciation followed by sharp—but ultimately temporary—corrections.
“Don’t Lose Control of Your Tokens”
Pal warned investors not to get complacent, especially as the next corrective wave could be steep.
“The next one that happens, we’ll have a 35% drop, and you’ll all say ‘is it over?’ And it won’t be.”
He cautioned against using leverage, getting caught up in FOMO, or losing wallet access—noting that emotional decisions often lead to losses in these hyper-volatile phases.
Elongated Cycle Through 2026
Based on Pal’s models and macro signals, he believes the current bull cycle will extend into Q1 or even Q2 of 2026. He attributes this to the elongation of the business cycle, driven by elevated interest rates and the prolonged lag in liquidity response.
“The forward-looking liquidity suggests that, probabilistically… this whole thing goes into 2026,” Pal said, also hinting that it aligns politically with the U.S. midterms and a potential Trump run.
Macro, Sentiment, and Technicals All Aligned
Citing alignment across technical analysis, macro indicators, and investor sentiment, Pal expressed high conviction that the crypto bull run has only just begun. His final advice was simple but firm:
“Hold on to your hats… Keep the faith, keep building, and don’t screw it up.”
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
