OPEC+ Targets U.S. Shale in Fresh Oil Strategy Shift

OPEC+ isn’t just boosting oil supply. Group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia have another goal: outmaneuver U.S. shale.
That strategy became clear in early May. The group announced a faster-than-expected increase in production. Insiders say the move isn’t just about output—it’s also about power.
OPEC tried this approach a decade ago. It failed. Back then, U.S. shale drillers used innovation to slash costs and survive low prices.
The situation has changed. U.S. producers now face rising operational costs. Profit margins are tightening. Falling global prices are making it worse.
Tariff-related trade tensions under President Trump added to the pressure. That economic fallout still lingers today.
Ten OPEC+ insiders and industry contacts confirmed the new strategy. Four of them mentioned market share recovery as a clear motive. None used the phrase “price war,” but the message was clear.
Pushing prices lower could hurt shale operators the most. According to OPEC+ sources, $55–$60 per barrel could be the breaking point.
One expert close to Saudi strategy said, “Uncertainty kills plans. That’s the goal—drop prices, cause hesitation.”
Neither OPEC, nor Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak, nor the Saudi government commented on the matter.
U.S. shale may have weathered OPEC’s pressure before. But this time, the storm could be harder to escape.