OPEC+ May Accelerate Output Hike in July to Regain Market Share

According to a report from Bloomberg, OPEC+ is considering a larger-than-expected oil production increase in July as the group looks to reclaim market share lost in recent months.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report states that member nations are discussing a potential hike exceeding 411,000 barrels per day, the same volume added in both April and May.
The proposal will be reviewed during a key virtual meeting on Saturday involving eight core OPEC+ members, where production targets for July will be finalized.
Strategic Shift Amid Market Pressures
In April, OPEC+ surprised markets by implementing a 411,000 bpd increase, which was three times higher than originally planned, despite signs of weakening demand. The move contributed to a sharp selloff in crude, briefly dragging prices to a four-year low below $60 per barrel.
Despite the price decline, the group maintained that output hike again in May, signaling a clear shift in focus toward market share over price support. The July discussions suggest this approach may intensify as OPEC+ adapts to changing global demand dynamics and competition from non-OPEC producers.
Market Implications
A larger production boost in July could exert further downward pressure on oil prices, particularly if demand fails to rebound in tandem. However, it also reflects the alliance’s growing urgency to reassert its presence in global supply chains, particularly amid rising U.S. shale output and geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders and analysts will be watching Saturday’s meeting closely for signals on how far OPEC+ is willing to go in this renewed push for market dominance — and what the implications will be for energy markets, inflation, and macroeconomic policy in the months ahead.