Nvidia Propels Chip Stocks to Record Share of S&P 500 as Tariff Uncertainty Grows

Semiconductor companies have taken center stage on Wall Street, with the sector now making up over 12% of the S&P 500—twice its share from just three years ago.
Nvidia leads the pack, having soared to a $3.8 trillion market cap and claiming more than half of the entire chip sector’s weight.
Riding the AI wave, Nvidia has added over $1.4 trillion in value since April and helped lift the entire chip index, which has surged 111% in three years—well ahead of the S&P 500’s 61% climb. Other chip firms like Astera Labs, Marvell, and Allegro have also posted gains, although Micron dipped slightly despite a strong quarter.
Amid the rally, political developments are raising eyebrows. Reports suggest former President Trump may seek to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, frustrated by the Fed’s pace on rate cuts. This speculation has already shifted expectations, with traders now seeing higher odds of a cut in July.
Adding to market uncertainty, the countdown is on for Trump’s tariff pause to expire July 9. If no extension comes, fresh levies could hit global imports, including a 30% rate on Chinese goods and 50% on European products. While stocks have rallied since the pause began, renewed tariffs could inject volatility.
Meanwhile, China continues to distance itself from the U.S. dollar, slashing its dollar reserves to a 15-year low and ramping up gold holdings. The move fuels speculation of long-term de-dollarization efforts, especially as gold reaches record highs.
While chips shine, macro tensions and digital assets tell a more complex story about what’s powering and threatening the current rally.