Mining No Longer Matters, Says Fred Krueger as ETFs Redefine Bitcoin Cycles
Crypto investor Fred Krueger has challenged the conventional wisdom behind Bitcoin’s four-year cycle model, asserting that the role of mining has become increasingly irrelevant in today’s market environment.
According to Krueger, the traditional halving-based model is no longer a valid framework for predicting Bitcoin’s long-term behavior.
Krueger argues that past market cycles were largely driven by the halving of block rewards. However, in 2025, institutional demand—particularly from Bitcoin ETFs and treasury-focused buyers—has significantly outpaced the impact of reduced mining rewards. “The reduction from 450 BTC/day to 225 BTC/day is minor,” Krueger noted, “when ETFs and treasury companies are collectively buying 5,000 BTC per day.”
He also criticized the over-reliance on historical cycle analysis built on only three prior data points, saying that trying to time the market top is both unreliable and counterproductive. “We don’t know when the top will happen,” Krueger said, suggesting that such predictions lack statistical validity.
Instead, he advised investors to adopt a more disciplined, long-term strategy based on the Kelly Criterion—a formula used to determine optimal investment sizing relative to risk. Krueger recommends holding a steady 70% allocation and rebalancing when needed. “It will capture most of the massive power law return,” he said. “So chill at 70%. Rebalance. Enjoy life.”
Krueger’s comments reflect a growing shift in crypto market thinking, where institutional flows are redefining the drivers of price cycles and challenging legacy models built around mining economics.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
