Bitcoin Market in Accumulation Phase, Says Composite Volatility Index Analysis
Axel Adler Jr., a verified crypto analyst, has shared insights into the current phase of the Bitcoin market using the Composite Volatility Index (CVI) and its 30-day change metric—an approach that uses Bitcoin address activity as a proxy for identifying macro cycles.
According to Adler, the 30-day change in the Composite Volatility Index is now at -3.5%, which signals that the market is in an accumulation phase—a period where informed participants quietly build positions while volatility and public attention remain subdued.
Understanding the Metric
The Composite Volatility Index (CVI) captures behavioral patterns derived from Bitcoin address activity, which tends to mirror investor sentiment. Its 30-day rate of change is particularly telling:
- When the 30D change is below 0%, it reflects reduced volatility and accumulation by market participants.
- When the 30D change exceeds +15%, it typically signals heightened volatility due to distribution or panic selling.
This framework helps analysts distinguish between phases of smart money inflow versus marketwide anxiety or euphoria.
Chart Insight: A Visual Story of Phases
The chart included in the post shows:
- BTC price (black line)
- Composite Volatility Index (blue)
- 30-Day CVI Change (shaded pink/orange)
From 2022 to 2025, repeated cycles are visible where spikes above +15% (orange) precede market tops or sharp corrections, while deep dips below 0% (pink) often precede price recoveries or major uptrends. Currently, the 30D change sits at -3.5%, squarely in the accumulation zone.
What This Means for Investors
The accumulation signal implies that volatility is low, large players may be quietly re-entering, and the next major move could be to the upside if historical patterns hold. It also suggests a lack of panic-selling or overheated speculation, offering a more stable entry point for long-term positions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
