Investor Behind ‘The Big Short’ Flags Trade War as Market Threat

Steve Eisman, the investor best known for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market before the 2008 crash, has issued a cautionary message about the current bull market.
While he remains optimistic about America’s long-term economic potential, he says one threat looms large enough to derail everything: a global trade war.
In a recent video on his YouTube channel, Eisman said that despite some volatility, the past decade has largely been defined by bullish sentiment — and he sees good reason for that to continue. He described the U.S. economy as more innovative and dynamic than at any point in his lifetime.
However, Eisman drew a sharp contrast between market momentum and geopolitical risk. He warned that growing tensions between nations could escalate into a trade conflict with devastating consequences for the stock market.
Referencing the outbreak of World War I, which many believed was unlikely at the time, Eisman cautioned that even if no country actively seeks economic confrontation, global entanglements and missteps could still lead there.
“If a trade war erupts,” he said, “markets won’t just dip — they’ll see a significant correction.” On the other hand, if tensions ease, Eisman believes every market dip presents a strong buying opportunity.