Here’s How Many Percent Chance There Is of a Fed Rate Cut in May, According to Prediction Markets
Despite growing political pressure from President Donald Trump, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May remains low, according to predictions from Kalshi, a prediction market platform.
As of April 21, Kalshi estimates there is an 85% chance that the Fed will maintain current interest rates. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 12%, with only a 3% chance of a larger move.
This prediction comes in the wake of Trump’s recent calls for a “preemptive cut” to interest rates, arguing that inflation is “virtually gone” and that the Fed should act swiftly.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has firmly pushed back against the political pressure, emphasizing that the central bank is “not in a rush” to reduce interest rates. Powell also pointed out that clearer signals from inflation data and employment reports are necessary before any rate cuts are considered.
BREAKING: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts, there is now an 85% chance of no rate cut occurring in May, per @Kalshi.
Fed Chair Powell most recently said he is “not in a hurry” to cut rates. pic.twitter.com/gDOysEYNpP
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 21, 2025
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
