Here’s How Many Percent Chance There Is of a Fed Rate Cut in May, According to Prediction Markets
Despite growing political pressure from President Donald Trump, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May remains low, according to predictions from Kalshi, a prediction market platform.
As of April 21, Kalshi estimates there is an 85% chance that the Fed will maintain current interest rates. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 12%, with only a 3% chance of a larger move.
This prediction comes in the wake of Trump’s recent calls for a “preemptive cut” to interest rates, arguing that inflation is “virtually gone” and that the Fed should act swiftly.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has firmly pushed back against the political pressure, emphasizing that the central bank is “not in a rush” to reduce interest rates. Powell also pointed out that clearer signals from inflation data and employment reports are necessary before any rate cuts are considered.
BREAKING: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts, there is now an 85% chance of no rate cut occurring in May, per @Kalshi.
Fed Chair Powell most recently said he is “not in a hurry” to cut rates. pic.twitter.com/gDOysEYNpP
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 21, 2025
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
