Here’s How Long the U.S. Government Shutdown Is Expected to Last
Market traders on Kalshi are increasingly betting that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could extend for several weeks, reflecting growing uncertainty in Washington over a resolution.
Kalshi’s latest prediction market data shows that the expected duration of the government shutdown has surged to 23.7 days, marking a significant increase from earlier projections. The sharp rise in the forecast indicates that investors and analysts see a prolonged standoff between lawmakers before a deal is reached.
Trading volume on the market has exceeded $3.3 million, highlighting intense interest from participants tracking political and economic developments.
The sudden spike in forecast length suggests that optimism for a quick resolution has faded as negotiations in Congress remain deadlocked.
The last major government shutdown, which occurred in late 2018 and early 2019, lasted 35 days – the longest in U.S. history. While current forecasts have not yet reached that level, the trend points to mounting skepticism about a near-term breakthrough.
Economists warn that an extended shutdown could delay federal paychecks, slow down government services, and dent consumer confidence if the impasse stretches into several weeks. Meanwhile, political analysts say both parties are bracing for public backlash, with each side hoping to shift blame for the disruption.
If Kalshi’s prediction holds, the shutdown would continue well into the end of the month, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile U.S. economic outlook.
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Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
